Week 17 2022 · January 1, 2023
Steelers at Ravens, Week 17 2022: who deserved to win?
The Steelers beat the Ravens 16–13, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Steelers win 8 of 10.
An off day for the Ravens: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Steelers they would win 51% of the time; with this day’s form, 19%. The numbers
Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:20 left): the Ravens threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was picked, worth 30 points of win probability to the Steelers.
Final
 Pittsburgh Steelers | 16 |
|---|---|
 Baltimore Ravens | 13 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +19 Steelers about even · −19 Ravens
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Steelers win 8, Ravens win 2.
- 1 PIT 27 BAL 0
- 2 PIT 36 BAL 16
- 3 PIT 24 BAL 9
- 4 PIT 22 BAL 10
- 5 PIT 25 BAL 16
- 6 PIT 13 BAL 7
- 7 PIT 14 BAL 10
- 8 PIT 16 BAL 14
- 9 PIT 24 BAL 28
- 10 PIT 23 BAL 34
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Ravens
They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Steelers they would win 51% of the time; with this day’s form, 19%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
32 points apart for the Ravens: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers offenseEPA per play gained | +0.15 | +0.06 | better by 0.10 |
| Steelers defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.01 | +0.12 | better by 0.11 |
| Ravens offenseEPA per play gained | +0.01 | +0.10 | worse by 0.10 |
| Ravens defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.15 | +0.09 | worse by 0.06 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Steelers win 81% of them, Ravens 19%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Steelers by 17+ | 28.5% |
| Steelers by 9–16 | 22.9% |
| Steelers by 1–8 | 29.1% |
| Level after regulation | 2.5% |
| Ravens by 1–8 | 11.3% |
| Ravens by 9–16 | 4.7% |
| Ravens by 17+ | 1.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- C. Boswell, 21 yds made · 100% expected
- J. Tucker, 30 yds made · 98% expected
- C. Boswell, 48 yds missed · 81% expected
- J. Tucker, 51 yds made · 77% expected
- C. Boswell, 51 yds made · 75% expected
- C. Boswell, 33 yds made · 96% expected
Penalties: Steelers 6 for 43 yards, Ravens 4 for 30 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 8:24 | False Start on the Steelers (Pat Freiermuth), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% BAL +1.0 pts |
| Q2 11:36 | Illegal Touch Pass on the Steelers, 0 yards | 0% BAL 0.0 pts |
| Q2 8:53 | Offensive Holding on the Steelers (Minkah Fitzpatrick), 10 yards | +3% BAL +0.8 pts |
| Q2 3:30 | False Start on the Ravens (Josh Oliver), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% PIT +0.4 pts |
| Q2 0:22 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Steelers (Cameron Heyward), 8 yards | +4% BAL +1.3 pts |
| Q3 12:28 | False Start on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% PIT +0.7 pts |
| Q3 11:24 | Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +3% PIT +1.5 pts |
| Q3 0:52 | Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 5 yards | +2% BAL +0.5 pts |
| Q4 0:52 | Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards | +7% PIT +0.4 pts |
| Q4 0:20 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Steelers, 15 yards | +5% BAL +1.4 pts |
Steelers penalties, every game · Ravens penalties, every game · All teams, 2022
When it happened
Ravens’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 86%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 2:51 | The Ravens converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +8% BAL | BAL: Field goal |
| 2 | Q2 5:36 | The Steelers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +8% PIT | PIT: Missed field goal |
| 3 | Q2 3:35 | C. Boswell missed 48-yard field goalKicks · 81% expected for him, 32 of 40 from 45+ before | +11% BAL | PIT: End of half |
| 4 | Q4 11:48 | The Steelers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +9% PIT | PIT: Field goal |
| 5 | Q4 8:51 | The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedI. Likely dropped a catchable passDrops · 5 drops on 36 catchable balls before this | +10% PIT | BAL: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 6:47 | The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 183rd & 4th downs · 19% expectedP. Freiermuth dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 70 catchable balls before this | +11% BAL | PIT: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 1:02 | The Steelers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +22% PIT | PIT: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 0:20 | The Ravens threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's handsUnsportsmanlike Conduct on the Steelers, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +29% PIT | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Lamar Jackson (BAL QB), out, replaced by t.huntley · 5.3 pts
- Marcus Peters (BAL CB), out · 1.5 pts
- Calais Campbell (BAL DE), out · 0.7 pts
- Geno Stone (BAL SS), out · 0.5 pts
- Devin Duvernay (BAL WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Steelers 90% · Ravens 10%
- Final margin
- Steelers by 3
- Luck in points
- 4.9 for the Steelers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Ravens by 1.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Steelers 81% · Ravens 19% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2022 games · 
Steelers · 
Ravens
More from Week 17 2022
- Cowboys at Titans DAL 27–13 · replay 96% for the winner
- Cardinals at Falcons ATL 20–19 · replay 58% for the winner
- Panthers at Buccaneers TB 30–24 · replay 74% for the winner
- Bears at Lions DET 41–10 · replay 99% for the winner
- Browns at Commanders CLE 24–10 · replay 90% for the winner
- Broncos at Chiefs KC 27–24 · replay 97% for the winner
- Colts at Giants NYG 38–10 · replay 89% for the winner
- Jaguars at Texans JAX 31–3 · replay 83% for the winner
- Dolphins at Patriots NE 23–21 · replay 41% for the winner
- Saints at Eagles NO 20–10 · replay 89% for the winner
- Jets at Seahawks SEA 23–6 · replay 91% for the winner
- 49ers at Raiders SF 37–34 · replay 52% for the winner
- Rams at Chargers LAC 31–10 · replay 87% for the winner
- Vikings at Packers GB 41–17 · replay 81% for the winner