luckadjusted

Week 10 2025 · November 9, 2025

Falcons vs Colts, Week 10 2025: who deserved to win?

The Colts beat the Falcons 31–25, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Colts win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Colts were 68% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 0:21 left): D. Mooney dropped a catchable pass, worth 39 points of win probability to the Colts.

Final (OT)

Atlanta Falcons 25
Indianapolis Colts 31

November 9, 2025 · Lucas Oil Stadium · Closing line: Colts −6.5

Luck index +15 Colts about even · −15 Falcons

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Falcons win 2, Colts win 8.

  1. 1 ATL 40 IND 24
  2. 2 ATL 25 IND 21
  3. 3 ATL 22 IND 24
  4. 4 ATL 27 IND 33
  5. 5 ATL 34 IND 43
  6. 6 ATL 21 IND 33
  7. 7 ATL 17 IND 34
  8. 8 ATL 20 IND 41
  9. 9 ATL 9 IND 35
  10. 10 ATL 10 IND 44

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Falcons win 15% of them, Colts 85%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Colts by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Falcons by 17+1.7%
Falcons by 9–164.3%
Falcons by 1–88.9%
Level after regulation1.8%
Colts by 1–818.6%
Colts by 9–1620.3%
Colts by 17+44.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.5 points to the Falcons: the final margin was Colts by 6, without the luck Colts by 7.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Badgley, 53 yds missed · 62% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 43 yds made · 85% expected
  • M. Badgley, 34 yds made · 93% expected
  • M. Badgley, 44 yds made · 82% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Falcons 3 for 35 yards, Colts 7 for 56 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 6:42 Defensive Pass Interference on the Colts (Mekhi Blackmon), 20 yards +4% ATL +2.2 pts
Q1 0:26 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Colts, 5 yards, wiping out the play +4% ATL +1.4 pts
Q2 9:03 Offensive Holding on the Colts (Ashton Dulin), 6 yards +2% ATL +0.6 pts
Q2 7:25 False Start on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% ATL +1.0 pts
Q2 3:25 Offensive Holding on the Colts (Andrew Ogletree), 10 yards +2% ATL +1.1 pts
Q2 0:20 Taunting on the Falcons (Jessie Bates III), 15 yards +6% IND +2.7 pts
Q3 7:49 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Falcons, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +1% IND +0.4 pts
Q4 10:20 Delay of Game on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% IND +0.6 pts
Q4 0:15 Intentional Grounding on the Falcons (Michael Penix), 15 yards +33% IND +1.2 pts
QOT 9:10 Illegal Contact on the Colts (Mekhi Blackmon), 5 yards +17% ATL +2.0 pts

Falcons penalties, every game · Colts penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Colts’ chance of winning

As low as 24% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Colts were ahead in it, below while the Falcons were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:24 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expectedThe Falcons fumbled and the Colts recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +21% IND ATL: Touchdown
2 Q3 10:28 The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedThe Colts fumbled and the Falcons recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +24% ATL IND: Turnover on downs
3 Q3 0:52 The Colts were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +17% ATL IND: Field goal
4 Q4 1:17 The Colts converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expected +17% IND IND: Field goal
5 Q4 0:21 The game turned hereD. Mooney dropped a catchable passDrops · 6 drops on 162 catchable balls before this +39% IND ATL: End of game
6 Q4 0:15 Intentional Grounding on the Falcons (Michael Penix), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 679 snaps before, position avg 1 per 625 +33% IND IND: Touchdown
7 QOT 9:10 Illegal Contact on the Colts (Mekhi Blackmon), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 921 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +17% ATL ATL: Punt
8 QOT 8:19 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +18% IND ATL: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • DeForest Buckner (IND DT), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Charvarius Ward (IND CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Spencer Shrader (IND K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Leonard Floyd (ATL DE), out · 0.6 pts
  • Matthew Bergeron (ATL OL), out · 0.5 pts
  • Divine Deablo (ATL LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Mike Hughes (ATL CB), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Falcons 14% · Colts 86%

Final margin
Colts by 6
Luck in points
1.5 for the Falcons
Luck-adjusted margin
Colts by 7.5
Replay with same day's form
Falcons 15% · Colts 85% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2025 games · Falcons · Colts

More from Week 10 2025