Week 10 2025 · November 9, 2025
Jaguars at Texans, Week 10 2025: who deserved to win?
The Texans beat the Jaguars 36–29, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Texans win 9 of 10. The Jaguars had the bounces: injuries alone were worth 15 points of win probability to the Jaguars.
An off day for the Jaguars: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Texans they would win 49% of the time; with this day’s form, 6%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Jaguars were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:07 left): Return touchdown by the Texans, worth 39 points of win probability to the Texans.
Final
 Jacksonville Jaguars | 29 |
|---|---|
 Houston Texans | 36 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +6 Texans about even · −6 Jaguars
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Jaguars win 1, Texans win 9.
- 1 JAX 15 HOU 10
- 2 JAX 10 HOU 12
- 3 JAX 3 HOU 8
- 4 JAX 12 HOU 20
- 5 JAX 10 HOU 21
- 6 JAX 6 HOU 20
- 7 JAX 0 HOU 17
- 8 JAX 10 HOU 29
- 9 JAX 0 HOU 24
- 10 JAX 3 HOU 34
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Jaguars
Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Texans they would win 49% of the time; with this day’s form, 6%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
43 points apart for the Jaguars: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguars offenseEPA per play gained | −0.06 | +0.08 | worse by 0.15 |
| Jaguars defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.10 | +0.14 | better by 0.04 |
| Texans offenseEPA per play gained | +0.10 | +0.06 | better by 0.05 |
| Texans defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.06 | +0.05 | better by 0.11 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Jaguars win 6% of them, Texans 94%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Jaguars by 17+ | 0.1% |
| Jaguars by 9–16 | 1.2% |
| Jaguars by 1–8 | 3.9% |
| Level after regulation | 1.3% |
| Texans by 1–8 | 15.7% |
| Texans by 9–16 | 22.4% |
| Texans by 17+ | 55.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- C. Little, 32 yds made · 96% expected
- M. Wright, 23 yds made · 99% expected
- C. Little, 53 yds made · 70% expected
- C. Little, 33 yds made · 96% expected
Penalties: Jaguars 9 for 90 yards, Texans 11 for 80 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:13 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Texans (Denico Autry), 15 yards | +10% JAX +4.7 pts |
| Q1 8:48 | False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% HOU +0.9 pts |
| Q1 4:24 | Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards | +2% JAX +1.3 pts |
| Q2 12:38 | Delay of Game on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% JAX +0.8 pts |
| Q2 6:56 | Taunting on the Texans (Kamari Lassiter), 15 yards | +1% JAX +1.9 pts |
| Q2 6:51 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Henry To'oTo'o), 4 yards | 0% JAX +0.4 pts |
| Q2 6:05 | False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% HOU +0.4 pts |
| Q2 5:03 | False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% HOU +0.4 pts |
| Q2 3:03 | Roughing the Passer on the Jaguars (Travon Walker), 15 yards, wiping out the play | +3% HOU +1.2 pts |
| Q2 1:08 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Derek Stingley Jr.), 4 yards | +1% JAX +0.6 pts |
| Q2 0:04 | False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% JAX +0.1 pts |
| Q3 12:15 | Illegal Contact on the Texans (E.J. Speed), 5 yards | 0% JAX +0.1 pts |
| Q3 10:17 | Illegal Formation on the Jaguars (Rayuan Lane), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% HOU +0.4 pts |
| Q3 6:45 | Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +1% HOU +1.5 pts |
| Q3 1:43 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Henry To'oTo'o), 7 yards | +1% JAX +1.6 pts |
| Q4 12:16 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Jaguars (Bhayshul Tuten), 12 yards | +1% HOU +0.9 pts |
| Q4 1:25 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (Jarrian Jones), 23 yards | +14% HOU +2.3 pts |
| Q4 1:19 | False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% JAX +0.9 pts |
| Q4 0:41 | False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap | +6% JAX +0.4 pts |
| Q4 0:13 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Jaguars, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +37% HOU +1.4 pts |
Jaguars penalties, every game · Texans penalties, every game · All teams, 2025
When it happened
Texans’ chance of winning
As low as 2% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:13 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Texans (Denico Autry), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 12 flags in 4110 snaps before, position avg 1 per 304 | +10% JAX | JAX: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 8:22 | The Jaguars converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 23% expected | +9% JAX | JAX: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q4 1:56 | The Texans converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected | +13% HOU | HOU: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q4 1:25 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (Jarrian Jones), 23 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 1023 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 | +14% HOU | HOU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 0:37 | The Texans converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 21% expected | +30% HOU | HOU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 0:31 | The Texans’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +10% JAX | – |
| 7 | Q4 0:13 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Jaguars, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +37% HOU | – |
| 8 | Q4 0:07 | The Jaguars fumbled and the Texans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the TexansSpecial teams | +39% HOU | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- C.J. Stroud (HOU QB), out, replaced by d.mills · 5.2 pts
- Tytus Howard (HOU T), out · 0.8 pts
- Jalen Pitre (HOU S), out · 0.5 pts
- Ed Ingram (HOU G), out · 0.4 pts
- Ka'imi Fairbairn (HOU K), out · 0.3 pts
- Jourdan Lewis (JAX CB), out · 0.6 pts
- Ezra Cleveland (JAX OL), out · 0.5 pts
- Brenton Strange (JAX TE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Travis Hunter (JAX WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Eric Murray (JAX S), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Jaguars 18% · Texans 82%
- Final margin
- Texans by 7
- Luck in points
- 5.7 for the Jaguars
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Texans by 12.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Jaguars 6% · Texans 94% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2025 games · 
Jaguars · 
Texans
More from Week 10 2025
- Raiders at Broncos DEN 10–7 · replay 51% for the winner
- Falcons vs Colts IND 31–25 · replay 85% for the winner
- Ravens at Vikings BAL 27–19 · replay 83% for the winner
- Bills at Dolphins MIA 30–13 · replay 55% for the winner
- Browns at Jets NYJ 27–20 · replay 45% for the winner
- Patriots at Buccaneers NE 28–23 · replay 85% for the winner
- Saints at Panthers NO 17–7 · replay 69% for the winner
- Giants at Bears CHI 24–20 · replay 71% for the winner
- Cardinals at Seahawks SEA 44–22 · replay 84% for the winner
- Lions at Commanders DET 44–22 · replay 82% for the winner
- Rams at 49ers LA 42–26 · replay 90% for the winner
- Steelers at Chargers LAC 25–10 · replay 74% for the winner
- Eagles at Packers PHI 10–7 · replay 36% for the winner