luckadjusted

Week 10 2025 · November 9, 2025

Ravens at Vikings, Week 10 2025: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Vikings 27–19, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Ravens win 8 of 10. The Vikings had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 31 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 63% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 12:55 left): the Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 1, worth 16 points of win probability to the Ravens.

Final

Baltimore Ravens 27
Minnesota Vikings 19

November 9, 2025 · U.S. Bank Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −4.5

Luck index +17 Ravens about even · −17 Vikings

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ravens win 8, Vikings win 2.

  1. 1 BAL 33 MIN 3
  2. 2 BAL 30 MIN 9
  3. 3 BAL 30 MIN 13
  4. 4 BAL 34 MIN 20
  5. 5 BAL 30 MIN 19
  6. 6 BAL 25 MIN 16
  7. 7 BAL 23 MIN 17
  8. 8 BAL 26 MIN 23
  9. 9 BAL 28 MIN 31
  10. 10 BAL 12 MIN 26

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ravens win 83% of them, Vikings 17%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ravens by 17+41.1%
Ravens by 9–1622.0%
Ravens by 1–819.9%
Level after regulation1.6%
Vikings by 1–810.0%
Vikings by 9–164.0%
Vikings by 17+1.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.3 points to the Vikings: the final margin was Ravens by 8, without the luck Ravens by 11.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • T. Loop, 44 yds made · 84% expected
  • W. Reichard, 49 yds made · 77% expected
  • T. Loop, 28 yds made · 98% expected
  • T. Loop, 30 yds made · 97% expected
  • T. Loop, 22 yds made · 99% expected
  • T. Loop, 56 yds missed · 65% expected
  • W. Reichard, 43 yds made · 85% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Ravens 5 for 62 yards, Vikings 13 for 102 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 1:25 False Start on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% MIN +0.8 pts
Q2 11:55 False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BAL +1.0 pts
Q2 8:03 False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% BAL +0.6 pts
Q2 5:23 Illegal Use of Hands on the Vikings (Byron Murphy), 5 yards +1% BAL +0.3 pts
Q2 0:10 Roughing the Passer on the Vikings (Dallas Turner), 13 yards, wiping out the play +6% BAL +0.9 pts
Q3 12:41 Defensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (Harrison Smith), 22 yards +5% BAL +1.4 pts
Q3 7:17 False Start on the Vikings (Ben Yurosek), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% BAL +0.7 pts
Q3 5:50 Illegal Blindside Block on the Vikings (Adam Thielen), 15 yards +2% BAL +1.6 pts
Q3 2:55 False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% BAL +0.8 pts
Q4 9:57 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Roquan Smith), 5 yards 0% MIN +0.6 pts
Q4 9:57 False Start on the Vikings (Justin Jefferson), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BAL +0.7 pts
Q4 8:43 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Chidobe Awuzie), 38 yards +3% MIN +3.9 pts
Q4 5:35 False Start on the Vikings (J.J. McCarthy), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BAL +0.5 pts
Q4 5:11 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Roquan Smith), 9 yards +1% MIN +0.6 pts
Q4 3:28 False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BAL +0.1 pts
Q4 3:23 Illegal Formation on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MIN +0.5 pts
Q4 1:55 Offensive Holding on the Vikings (Dwight McGlothern), 7 yards +2% BAL +0.6 pts
Q4 0:47 False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BAL +0.2 pts

Ravens penalties, every game · Vikings penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Vikings’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 81%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Vikings were ahead in it, below while the Ravens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:40 The Vikings converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +12% MIN MIN: Touchdown
2 Q1 4:33 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expectedI. Likely dropped a catchable passDrops · 8 drops on 142 catchable balls before this +8% MIN BAL: Field goal
3 Q2 6:54 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expectedThe Vikings threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 46% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +8% BAL MIN: Punt
4 Q2 0:05 T. Loop made 30-yard field goalKicks · 97% expected for him +10% MIN BAL: Field goal
5 Q3 12:55 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expectedThe Vikings threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +16% BAL MIN: Touchdown
6 Q3 10:19 The Vikings fumbled and the Ravens recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% BAL MIN: Turnover on downs
7 Q3 5:50 The Vikings were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expectedIllegal Blindside Block on the Vikings (Adam Thielen), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 9 flags in 4969 snaps before, position avg 1 per 403 +9% BAL MIN: Field goal
8 Q3 5:00 T. Loop missed 56-yard field goalKicks · 65% expected for him, 2 of 3 from 45+ before +9% MIN BAL: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Carson Wentz (MIN QB), out (IR), replaced by j.mccarthy · 2.6 pts
  • Theo Jackson (MIN S), out · 0.2 pts
  • Nnamdi Madubuike (BAL DL), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Tavius Robinson (BAL LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ravens 97% · Vikings 3%

Final margin
Ravens by 8
Luck in points
3.3 for the Vikings
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 11.3
Replay with same day's form
Ravens 83% · Vikings 17% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2025 games · Ravens · Vikings

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