luckadjusted

2025 NFL season · November 6, 2025–November 10

Week 10 2025: who deserved to win

2 of 14 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Eagles beat the Packers 10–7 in a game they win 36% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 10 2025 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 3 of 6 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Dolphins 30–13 vs Bills 26% 55% Coin flip
Saints 17–7 @ Panthers 34% 69% Deserved
Patriots 28–23 @ Buccaneers 43% 85% Deserved
Jets 27–20 vs Browns 46% 45% Coin flip
Texans 36–29 vs Jaguars 46% 94% Deserved
Eagles 10–7 @ Packers 46% 36% Lucky

Week 10 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Eagles W 10–7 @ Packers 36% +64
2 Jets W 27–20 vs Browns 45% +55
3 Broncos W 10–7 vs Raiders 51% +49
4 Dolphins W 30–13 vs Bills 55% +45
5 Saints W 17–7 @ Panthers 69% +31
6 Bears W 24–20 vs Giants 71% +29
7 Chargers W 25–10 vs Steelers 74% +26
8 Lions W 44–22 @ Commanders 82% +18
9 Ravens W 27–19 @ Vikings 83% +17
10 Seahawks W 44–22 vs Cardinals 84% +16
11 Patriots W 28–23 @ Buccaneers 85% +15
12 Colts W 31–25 vs Falcons 85% +15
13 Rams W 42–26 @ 49ers 90% +10
14 Texans W 36–29 vs Jaguars 94% +6
15 Jaguars L 29–36 @ Texans 6% −6
16 49ers L 26–42 vs Rams 10% −10
17 Falcons L 25–31 @ Colts 15% −15
18 Buccaneers L 23–28 vs Patriots 15% −15
19 Cardinals L 22–44 @ Seahawks 16% −16
20 Vikings L 19–27 vs Ravens 17% −17
21 Commanders L 22–44 vs Lions 18% −18
22 Steelers L 10–25 @ Chargers 26% −26
23 Giants L 20–24 @ Bears 29% −29
24 Panthers L 7–17 vs Saints 31% −31
25 Bills L 13–30 @ Dolphins 45% −45
26 Raiders L 7–10 @ Broncos 49% −49
27 Browns L 20–27 @ Jets 55% −55
28 Packers L 7–10 vs Eagles 64% −64