luckadjusted

2025 NFL season · October 30, 2025–November 3

Week 9 2025: who deserved to win

3 of 14 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Steelers beat the Colts 27–20 in a game they win 22% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 9 2025 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 4 of 6 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Panthers 16–13 @ Packers 18% 27% Lucky
Vikings 27–24 @ Lions 24% 76% Deserved
Steelers 27–20 vs Colts 40% 22% Lucky
Cardinals 27–17 @ Cowboys 40% 61% Deserved
Bills 28–21 vs Chiefs 43% 87% Deserved
Broncos 18–15 @ Texans 46% 73% Deserved

Week 9 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Steelers W 27–20 vs Colts 22% +78
2 Jaguars W 30–29 @ Raiders 23% +77
3 Panthers W 16–13 @ Packers 27% +73
4 Bears W 47–42 @ Bengals 51% +49
5 Cardinals W 27–17 @ Cowboys 61% +39
6 Broncos W 18–15 @ Texans 73% +27
7 Vikings W 27–24 @ Lions 76% +24
8 49ers W 34–24 @ Giants 81% +19
9 Seahawks W 38–14 @ Commanders 82% +18
10 Patriots W 24–23 vs Falcons 85% +15
11 Bills W 28–21 vs Chiefs 87% +13
12 Ravens W 28–6 @ Dolphins 90% +10
13 Rams W 34–10 vs Saints 96% +4
14 Chargers W 27–20 @ Titans 98% +2
15 Titans L 20–27 vs Chargers 2% −2
16 Saints L 10–34 @ Rams 4% −4
17 Dolphins L 6–28 vs Ravens 10% −10
18 Chiefs L 21–28 @ Bills 13% −13
19 Falcons L 23–24 @ Patriots 15% −15
20 Commanders L 14–38 vs Seahawks 18% −18
21 Giants L 24–34 vs 49ers 19% −19
22 Lions L 24–27 vs Vikings 24% −24
23 Texans L 15–18 vs Broncos 27% −27
24 Cowboys L 17–27 vs Cardinals 39% −39
25 Bengals L 42–47 vs Bears 49% −49
26 Packers L 13–16 vs Panthers 73% −73
27 Raiders L 29–30 vs Jaguars 77% −77
28 Colts L 20–27 @ Steelers 78% −78