luckadjusted

2025 NFL season · October 23, 2025–October 27

Week 8 2025: who deserved to win

2 of 13 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Texans beat the 49ers 26–15 in a game they win 46% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 8 2025 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 1 of 2 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Dolphins 34–10 @ Falcons 30% 79% Deserved
Jets 39–38 @ Bengals 34% 56% Coin flip

Week 8 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Texans W 26–15 vs 49ers 46% +54
2 Ravens W 30–16 vs Bears 49% +51
3 Jets W 39–38 @ Bengals 56% +44
4 Chiefs W 28–7 vs Commanders 66% +34
5 Buccaneers W 23–3 @ Saints 69% +31
6 Dolphins W 34–10 @ Falcons 79% +21
7 Eagles W 38–20 vs Giants 83% +17
8 Broncos W 44–24 vs Cowboys 90% +10
9 Packers W 35–25 @ Steelers 92% +8
10 Colts W 38–14 vs Titans 97% +3
11 Chargers W 37–10 vs Vikings 98% +2
12 Bills W 40–9 @ Panthers 99% +1
13 Patriots W 32–13 vs Browns 99% +1
14 Browns L 13–32 @ Patriots 1% −1
15 Panthers L 9–40 vs Bills 1% −1
16 Vikings L 10–37 @ Chargers 2% −2
17 Titans L 14–38 @ Colts 3% −3
18 Steelers L 25–35 vs Packers 8% −8
19 Cowboys L 24–44 @ Broncos 10% −10
20 Giants L 20–38 @ Eagles 17% −17
21 Falcons L 10–34 vs Dolphins 21% −21
22 Saints L 3–23 vs Buccaneers 31% −31
23 Commanders L 7–28 @ Chiefs 34% −34
24 Bengals L 38–39 vs Jets 44% −44
25 Bears L 16–30 @ Ravens 51% −51
26 49ers L 15–26 @ Texans 54% −54