luckadjusted

Week 8 2025 · October 26, 2025

Buccaneers at Saints, Week 8 2025: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers beat the Saints 23–3 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Saints had the bounces: injuries alone were worth 8 points of win probability to the Saints.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 63% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 6:48 left): Return touchdown by the Buccaneers, worth 27 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23
New Orleans Saints 3

October 26, 2025 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome · Closing line: Buccaneers −4.5

Luck index +31 Buccaneers lucky · −31 Saints

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Buccaneers win 7, Saints win 3.

  1. 1 TB 29 NO 7
  2. 2 TB 16 NO 0
  3. 3 TB 30 NO 17
  4. 4 TB 16 NO 6
  5. 5 TB 20 NO 13
  6. 6 TB 36 NO 31
  7. 7 TB 10 NO 7
  8. 8 TB 3 NO 5
  9. 9 TB 6 NO 14
  10. 10 TB 0 NO 16

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Buccaneers win 69% of them, Saints 31%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 20.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Buccaneers by 17+15.7%
Buccaneers by 9–1623.5%
Buccaneers by 1–828.1%
Level after regulation2.3%
Saints by 1–818.9%
Saints by 9–168.7%
Saints by 17+2.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.5 points to the Buccaneers: the final margin was Buccaneers by 20, without the luck Buccaneers by 19.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Grupe, 48 yds made · 76% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 55 yds made · 70% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 52 yds made · 75% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 54 yds made · 72% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Buccaneers 4 for 25 yards, Saints 8 for 40 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:07 False Start on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NO +0.8 pts
Q1 0:02 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Saints (Jonathan Bullard), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% TB +0.5 pts
Q2 14:12 Defensive Holding on the Saints (Davon Godchaux), 5 yards +3% TB +1.2 pts
Q2 9:51 Defensive Offside on the Saints (Carl Granderson), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% TB 0.0 pts
Q2 7:23 False Start on the Saints, 0 yards · pre-snap 0% TB 0.0 pts
Q2 2:26 False Start on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NO +0.6 pts
Q3 10:08 Offensive Holding on the Saints (Devaughn Vele), 10 yards +2% TB +1.1 pts
Q3 10:03 Offensive Holding on the Saints, 9 yards +1% TB +0.8 pts
Q3 9:41 Delay of Game on the Saints, 4 yards · pre-snap +1% TB +0.5 pts
Q3 9:06 Offensive Holding on the Saints, 7 yards, wiping out the play +4% TB +2.0 pts
Q3 5:21 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards +2% NO +1.2 pts
Q4 1:09 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Buccaneers (Chris Braswell), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NO +0.3 pts

Buccaneers penalties, every game · Saints penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Saints’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 61%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Saints were ahead in it, below while the Buccaneers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:01 The Saints converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +8% NO NO: Turnover
2 Q1 6:06 The Saints converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +7% NO NO: Punt
3 Q2 11:00 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +9% TB TB: Turnover on downs
4 Q2 7:28 The Buccaneers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +12% NO TB: Opp touchdown
5 Q2 6:48 The Saints threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the BuccaneersSpecial teams +27% TB NO: Punt
6 Q2 0:57 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 26% expectedThe Buccaneers fumbled and the Saints recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +13% NO TB: End of half
7 Q2 0:06 B. Grupe made 48-yard field goalKicks · 76% expected for him, 22 of 33 from 45+ before +7% NO NO: Punt
8 Q3 1:33 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 44% expectedThe Saints were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +8% TB NO: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Erik McCoy (NO C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Mike Evans (TB WR), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Luke Haggard (TB T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Luke Goedeke (TB T), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Bucky Irving (TB RB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Haason Reddick (TB LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Cody Mauch (TB G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Calijah Kancey (TB DL), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Kindle Vildor (TB CB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Buccaneers 99% · Saints 1%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 20
Luck in points
0.5 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Buccaneers by 19.5
Replay with same day's form
Buccaneers 69% · Saints 31% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2025 games · Buccaneers · Saints

More from Week 8 2025