luckadjusted

Week 8 2025 · October 26, 2025

Giants at Eagles, Week 8 2025: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Giants 38–20, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Eagles win 8 of 10. The Giants had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 10 points of win probability to the Giants.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 0:36 left): the Eagles converted 4th & 3, worth 10 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Final

New York Giants 20
Philadelphia Eagles 38

October 26, 2025 · Lincoln Financial Field · Closing line: Eagles −7

Luck index +17 Eagles about even · −17 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Giants win 2, Eagles win 8.

  1. 1 NYG 33 PHI 21
  2. 2 NYG 9 PHI 6
  3. 3 NYG 8 PHI 10
  4. 4 NYG 9 PHI 13
  5. 5 NYG 10 PHI 17
  6. 6 NYG 17 PHI 27
  7. 7 NYG 6 PHI 19
  8. 8 NYG 3 PHI 19
  9. 9 NYG 8 PHI 27
  10. 10 NYG 13 PHI 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Giants win 17% of them, Eagles 83%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 18.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Giants by 17+1.7%
Giants by 9–164.6%
Giants by 1–810.6%
Level after regulation2.1%
Eagles by 1–827.2%
Eagles by 9–1622.8%
Eagles by 17+30.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +8.4 points to the Eagles: the final margin was Eagles by 18, without the luck Eagles by 9.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Elliott, 58 yds missed · 61% expected
  • G. Gano, 47 yds made · 83% expected
  • J. Elliott, 40 yds made · 88% expected
  • G. Gano, 34 yds made · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Giants 7 for 54 yards, Eagles 5 for 30 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:03 Offensive Offside on the Giants (Daniel Bellinger), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% PHI +0.8 pts
Q1 10:44 Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards, wiping out the play +2% NYG +2.3 pts
Q1 6:33 False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NYG +1.9 pts
Q1 0:02 False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NYG +0.7 pts
Q2 9:03 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Giants (Wan'Dale Robinson), 10 yards +3% PHI +1.0 pts
Q2 8:27 Delay of Game on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PHI +0.4 pts
Q2 8:01 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Eagles (Cameron Latu), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PHI +0.2 pts
Q2 0:25 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Giants (Kayvon Thibodeaux), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% PHI +0.7 pts
Q3 10:32 Delay of Game on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYG +0.7 pts
Q3 9:26 Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Korie Black), 14 yards +3% PHI +2.7 pts
Q3 3:49 False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PHI +0.7 pts
Q4 9:46 Offensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Darius Slayton), 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% PHI +9.3 pts

Giants penalties, every game · Eagles penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Eagles’ chance of winning

As low as 50% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Eagles were ahead in it, below while the Giants were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 6:15 J. Elliott missed 58-yard field goalKicks · 61% expected for him, 38 of 56 from 45+ before +9% NYG PHI: Touchdown
2 Q1 1:18 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +6% NYG PHI: Touchdown
3 Q1 0:36 The Eagles converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +10% PHI PHI: Touchdown
4 Q2 12:57 The Eagles converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +7% PHI PHI: Touchdown
5 Q2 7:05 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +6% NYG PHI: Punt
6 Q2 3:02 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expectedT. Johnson dropped a catchable passDrops · 7 drops on 59 catchable balls before this +10% PHI NYG: Field goal
7 Q3 1:53 The Giants converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +6% NYG NYG: Field goal
8 Q4 9:46 Offensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Darius Slayton), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 11 flags in 5020 snaps before, position avg 1 per 403 +4% PHI PHI: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • A.J. Brown (PHI WR), out · 1.7 pts
  • Adoree' Jackson (PHI CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Cam Jurgens (PHI C), out · 0.5 pts
  • Nolan Smith (PHI LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Charley Hughlett (PHI LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Paulson Adebo (NYG CB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Malik Nabers (NYG WR), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Jevon Holland (NYG S), out · 0.6 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Giants 27% · Eagles 73%

Final margin
Eagles by 18
Luck in points
8.4 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 9.6
Replay with same day's form
Giants 17% · Eagles 83% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2025 games · Giants · Eagles

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