luckadjusted

Week 8 2025 · October 26, 2025

Bears at Ravens, Week 8 2025: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Bears 30–16, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Ravens win 5 of 10.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 6:54 left): the Bears were stopped on 3rd & 9, worth 13 points of win probability to the Ravens.

Final

Chicago Bears 16
Baltimore Ravens 30

October 26, 2025 · M&T Bank Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −2.5

Luck index +51 Ravens lucky · −51 Bears

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bears win 5, Ravens win 5.

  1. 1 CHI 33 BAL 14
  2. 2 CHI 30 BAL 20
  3. 3 CHI 34 BAL 27
  4. 4 CHI 24 BAL 20
  5. 5 CHI 19 BAL 17
  6. 6 CHI 14 BAL 16
  7. 7 CHI 16 BAL 20
  8. 8 CHI 23 BAL 31
  9. 9 CHI 13 BAL 26
  10. 10 CHI 17 BAL 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bears win 51% of them, Ravens 49%, counting the 7% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bears by 17+8.8%
Bears by 9–1613.8%
Bears by 1–824.6%
Level after regulation6.6%
Ravens by 1–823.3%
Ravens by 9–1614.5%
Ravens by 17+8.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.5 points to the Bears: the final margin was Ravens by 14, without the luck Ravens by 17.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Santos, 32 yds made · 96% expected
  • C. Santos, 39 yds made · 90% expected
  • T. Loop, 42 yds made · 86% expected
  • C. Santos, 58 yds missed · 63% expected
  • T. Loop, 28 yds made · 98% expected
  • T. Loop, 32 yds made · 96% expected
  • C. Santos, 47 yds made · 80% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bears 11 for 79 yards, Ravens 6 for 45 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Bears (Daniel Hardy), 10 yards 0% BAL +0.7 pts
Q1 10:00 False Start on the Bears (Colston Loveland), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% BAL +0.9 pts
Q1 3:28 Illegal Contact on the Ravens (Nate Wiggins), 5 yards +4% CHI +1.2 pts
Q2 13:13 Face Mask on the Ravens (Isaiah Likely), 15 yards +3% CHI +1.3 pts
Q2 12:11 False Start on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CHI +0.2 pts
Q2 6:54 Intentional Grounding on the Bears (Caleb Williams), 14 yards +5% BAL +1.3 pts
Q2 6:49 Illegal Formation on the Bears (D'Marco Jackson), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% CHI 0.0 pts
Q2 5:13 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bears (Nick McCloud), 3 yards +3% BAL +1.2 pts
Q2 1:21 Illegal Motion on the Ravens (Mark Andrews), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CHI +1.1 pts
Q2 0:26 Intentional Grounding on the Bears (Caleb Williams), 10 yards +3% BAL +1.0 pts
Q3 8:07 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards +3% CHI +0.9 pts
Q3 6:34 Illegal Use of Hands on the Bears (Nahshon Wright), 5 yards +1% BAL +0.6 pts
Q3 3:35 Low Block on the Bears (Noah Sewell), 15 yards +2% BAL +1.5 pts
Q4 9:55 Delay of Game on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% CHI +0.5 pts
Q4 9:48 False Start on the Bears, 2 yards · pre-snap +2% BAL +0.9 pts
Q4 3:12 Defensive Offside on the Bears (Jonathan Ford), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +2% CHI +0.1 pts
Q4 3:02 Encroachment on the Bears (Andrew Billings), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BAL +0.5 pts

Bears penalties, every game · Ravens penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Ravens’ chance of winning

As low as 37% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Ravens were ahead in it, below while the Bears were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:32 The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +9% BAL CHI: Field goal
2 Q2 6:54 The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedIntentional Grounding on the Bears (Caleb Williams), 14 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 1507 snaps before, position avg 1 per 625 +13% BAL CHI: Punt
3 Q2 3:32 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expectedD. Henry dropped a catchable passDrops · 7 drops on 92 catchable balls before this +8% CHI BAL: Field goal
4 Q2 3:28 The Ravens converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected +6% BAL BAL: Field goal
5 Q3 10:05 The Bears fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% CHI CHI: Punt
6 Q3 0:57 The Bears converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +5% CHI CHI: Touchdown
7 Q4 14:14 The Bears converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +10% CHI CHI: Touchdown
8 Q4 9:08 The Bears threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 46% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +5% BAL CHI: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Lamar Jackson (BAL QB), out, replaced by t.huntley · 9.0 pts
  • Nnamdi Madubuike (BAL DL), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Nnamdi Madubuike (BAL DT), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Ar'Darius Washington (BAL FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Tavius Robinson (BAL LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Cole Kmet (CHI TE), out · 1.1 pts
  • Jaylon Johnson (CHI CB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Tyrique Stevenson (CHI CB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Tyrique Stevenson (CHI DB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Kyler Gordon (CHI CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Kyler Gordon (CHI DB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Braxton Jones (CHI OL), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bears 2% · Ravens 98%

Final margin
Ravens by 14
Luck in points
3.5 for the Bears
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 17.5
Replay with same day's form
Bears 51% · Ravens 49% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2025 games · Bears · Ravens

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