luckadjusted

Week 8 2025 · October 26, 2025

Bills at Panthers, Week 8 2025: who deserved to win?

The Bills beat the Panthers 40–9, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Bills win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Bills were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 5:10 left): the Panthers converted 3rd & 5, worth 9 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Final

Buffalo Bills 40
Carolina Panthers 9

October 26, 2025 · Bank of America Stadium · Closing line: Bills −7

Luck index +1 Bills about even · −1 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bills win 10, Panthers win 0.

  1. 1 BUF 52 CAR 9
  2. 2 BUF 40 CAR 7
  3. 3 BUF 34 CAR 6
  4. 4 BUF 31 CAR 7
  5. 5 BUF 40 CAR 20
  6. 6 BUF 38 CAR 21
  7. 7 BUF 27 CAR 14
  8. 8 BUF 24 CAR 14
  9. 9 BUF 26 CAR 20
  10. 10 BUF 33 CAR 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bills win 99% of them, Panthers 1%. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 31.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bills by 17+84.1%
Bills by 9–1611.7%
Bills by 1–82.7%
Level after regulation0.1%
Panthers by 1–81.0%
Panthers by 9–160.3%
Panthers by 17+0.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.3 points to the Panthers: the final margin was Bills by 31, without the luck Bills by 31.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Prater, 45 yds made · 81% expected
  • M. Prater, 43 yds made · 82% expected
  • R. Fitzgerald, 48 yds made · 75% expected
  • R. Fitzgerald, 32 yds missed · 95% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bills 7 for 60 yards, Panthers 4 for 20 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 5:58 Defensive Holding on the Bills (Jordan Poyer), 5 yards +2% CAR +0.5 pts
Q2 15:00 False Start on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CAR +0.3 pts
Q2 14:33 Illegal Formation on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CAR +1.1 pts
Q2 13:24 Encroachment on the Panthers (Tershawn Wharton), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BUF +1.2 pts
Q2 10:05 Offensive Holding on the Panthers (Xavier Legette), 10 yards +3% BUF +1.0 pts
Q2 2:44 Illegal Touch Pass on the Panthers (Xavier Legette), 0 yards 0% BUF 0.0 pts
Q2 0:30 Tripping on the Bills (Joey Bosa), 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% CAR +0.9 pts
Q3 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards 0% CAR +1.1 pts
Q3 13:15 Defensive Holding on the Panthers (Jaycee Horn), 5 yards +2% BUF +1.6 pts
Q4 10:33 Offensive Holding on the Bills (Sam Franklin), 10 yards 0% CAR +0.7 pts
Q4 1:46 Unnecessary Roughness on the Bills (Michael Hoecht), 15 yards 0% CAR +2.9 pts

Bills penalties, every game · Panthers penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Panthers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Panthers were ahead in it, below while the Bills were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:39 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +8% BUF CAR: Punt
2 Q1 11:22 The Bills converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +7% BUF BUF: Field goal
3 Q1 7:59 The Bills were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +5% CAR BUF: Field goal
4 Q1 5:10 The Panthers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +9% CAR CAR: Turnover
5 Q1 3:51 The Panthers fumbled and the Bills recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% BUF CAR: Field goal
6 Q1 2:13 The Bills converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +9% BUF BUF: Field goal
7 Q2 14:09 The Bills were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +5% CAR BUF: Field goal
8 Q2 0:35 The Panthers converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +5% CAR CAR: Missed field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Robert Hunt (CAR G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Patrick Jones II (CAR LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Matt Milano (BUF LB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Taylor Rapp (BUF S), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Terrel Bernard (BUF LB), out · 0.5 pts
  • DaQuan Jones (BUF DT), out · 0.3 pts
  • Tyler Bass (BUF K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Damar Hamlin (BUF SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Cameron Johnston (BUF P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • T.J. Sanders (BUF DT), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bills 100% · Panthers 0%

Final margin
Bills by 31
Luck in points
0.3 for the Panthers
Luck-adjusted margin
Bills by 31.3
Replay with same day's form
Bills 99% · Panthers 1% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2025 games · Bills · Panthers

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