luckadjusted

Week 8 2025 · October 26, 2025

Packers at Steelers, Week 8 2025: who deserved to win?

The Packers beat the Steelers 35–25, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Packers win 9 of 10. The Steelers had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 22 points of win probability to the Steelers.

Before kickoff the Packers were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 0:35 left): the Packers converted 3rd & 7, worth 16 points of win probability to the Packers.

Final

Green Bay Packers 35
Pittsburgh Steelers 25

October 26, 2025 · Acrisure Stadium · Closing line: Packers −3

Luck index +8 Packers about even · −8 Steelers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Packers win 9, Steelers win 1.

  1. 1 GB 54 PIT 20
  2. 2 GB 41 PIT 14
  3. 3 GB 38 PIT 16
  4. 4 GB 37 PIT 20
  5. 5 GB 21 PIT 7
  6. 6 GB 32 PIT 20
  7. 7 GB 41 PIT 33
  8. 8 GB 29 PIT 23
  9. 9 GB 33 PIT 31
  10. 10 GB 16 PIT 22

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Packers win 92% of them, Steelers 8%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Packers by 17+52.8%
Packers by 9–1620.7%
Packers by 1–816.9%
Level after regulation1.7%
Steelers by 1–85.2%
Steelers by 9–161.9%
Steelers by 17+0.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.4 points to the Steelers: the final margin was Packers by 10, without the luck Packers by 17.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Boswell, 56 yds made · 71% expected
  • B. McManus, 57 yds missed · 62% expected
  • C. Boswell, 50 yds made · 81% expected
  • C. Boswell, 48 yds made · 84% expected
  • B. McManus, 44 yds missed · 82% expected
  • C. Boswell, 56 yds made · 71% expected
  • B. McManus, 28 yds made · 98% expected
  • B. McManus, 25 yds made · 99% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Packers 5 for 47 yards, Steelers 6 for 65 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Packers (Chris Brooks), 10 yards +2% PIT +0.7 pts
Q1 10:31 Offensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (D.K. Metcalf), 10 yards +2% GB +0.9 pts
Q1 4:29 Illegal Shift on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% GB +1.0 pts
Q2 9:42 Defensive Holding on the Packers (Keisean Nixon), 5 yards +7% PIT +1.4 pts
Q2 6:08 False Start on the Steelers (Cameron Heyward), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% GB +0.9 pts
Q2 1:27 Defensive Pass Interference on the Packers (Keisean Nixon), 21 yards +5% PIT +2.2 pts
Q2 0:18 Face Mask on the Steelers (T.J. Watt), 15 yards +4% GB +1.1 pts
Q3 14:12 Offensive Holding on the Packers (Javon Bullard), 10 yards +1% PIT +1.0 pts
Q4 13:09 Unnecessary Roughness on the Steelers (Nick Herbig), 15 yards +3% GB +1.4 pts
Q4 10:14 Unnecessary Roughness on the Steelers (D.K. Metcalf), 15 yards +2% GB +0.9 pts
Q4 2:07 Defensive Pass Interference on the Packers (Carrington Valentine), 1 yard 0% PIT 0.0 pts

Packers penalties, every game · Steelers penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Steelers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 85%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Steelers were ahead in it, below while the Packers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:52 The Steelers converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +12% PIT PIT: Field goal
2 Q2 14:55 B. McManus missed 57-yard field goalKicks · 62% expected for him, 64 of 91 from 45+ before +8% PIT GB: Punt
3 Q2 0:02 B. McManus missed 44-yard field goalKicks · 82% expected for him +9% PIT GB: Touchdown
4 Q3 12:40 The Packers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +10% GB GB: Touchdown
5 Q3 10:18 The Packers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +7% GB GB: Touchdown
6 Q3 0:35 The Packers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +16% GB GB: Touchdown
7 Q4 14:55 The Packers’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +7% GB GB: Touchdown
8 Q4 11:04 The Packers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +10% GB GB: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Dontayvion Wicks (GB WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Lucas Havrisik (GB K), out · 0.3 pts
  • Lukas Van Ness (GB DL), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Packers 99% · Steelers 1%

Final margin
Packers by 10
Luck in points
7.4 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 17.4
Replay with same day's form
Packers 92% · Steelers 8% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2025 games · Packers · Steelers

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