luckadjusted

Week 8 2025 · October 27, 2025

Commanders at Chiefs, Week 8 2025: who deserved to win?

The Chiefs beat the Commanders 28–7 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Chiefs were 78% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 5:40 left): the Chiefs were stopped on 3rd & 10, worth 15 points of win probability to the Commanders.

Final

Washington Commanders 7
Kansas City Chiefs 28

October 27, 2025 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · Closing line: Chiefs −10.5

Luck index +34 Chiefs lucky · −34 Commanders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Commanders win 3, Chiefs win 7.

  1. 1 WAS 23 KC 7
  2. 2 WAS 35 KC 26
  3. 3 WAS 23 KC 20
  4. 4 WAS 18 KC 20
  5. 5 WAS 23 KC 27
  6. 6 WAS 27 KC 34
  7. 7 WAS 19 KC 28
  8. 8 WAS 17 KC 30
  9. 9 WAS 16 KC 31
  10. 10 WAS 6 KC 29

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Commanders win 34% of them, Chiefs 66%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chiefs by 21.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Commanders by 17+4.1%
Commanders by 9–168.9%
Commanders by 1–819.6%
Level after regulation2.9%
Chiefs by 1–828.0%
Chiefs by 9–1621.3%
Chiefs by 17+15.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.0 points to the Chiefs: the final margin was Chiefs by 21, without the luck Chiefs by 15. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Commanders 3 for 35 yards, Chiefs 9 for 95 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 0:58 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs (Jack Cochrane), 10 yards +2% WAS +0.7 pts
Q2 0:12 Intentional Grounding on the Chiefs (Patrick Mahomes), 10 yards +4% WAS +1.1 pts
Q3 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs (Christian Roland-Wallace), 10 yards +1% WAS +1.0 pts
Q3 14:09 Unnecessary Roughness on the Commanders (Quan Martin), 15 yards +4% KC +2.0 pts
Q4 13:36 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs (Rashee Rice), 10 yards 0% WAS +1.0 pts
Q4 12:29 Taunting on the Chiefs (Rashee Rice), 15 yards +1% WAS +1.4 pts
Q4 7:52 False Start on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% KC +0.5 pts
Q4 6:59 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Chiefs (Jeffrey Bassa), 10 yards 0% WAS +0.9 pts
Q4 6:04 Unnecessary Roughness on the Commanders (Jer'Zhan Newton), 15 yards 0% KC +1.7 pts
Q4 4:00 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 10 yards 0% WAS +0.9 pts
Q4 2:00 Defensive Offside on the Chiefs (Chris Jones), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap 0% WAS +2.5 pts
Q4 0:22 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Chiefs (Charles Omenihu), 15 yards 0% WAS +1.1 pts

Commanders penalties, every game · Chiefs penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Chiefs’ chance of winning

As low as 44% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chiefs were ahead in it, below while the Commanders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:49 The Commanders were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +10% KC WAS: Turnover on downs
2 Q1 5:40 The Chiefs were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedThe Chiefs threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +15% WAS KC: Turnover
3 Q1 1:46 The Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +8% KC WAS: Turnover on downs
4 Q2 13:09 The Chiefs were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expectedThe Chiefs were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +13% WAS KC: Touchdown
5 Q2 10:30 The Commanders were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +8% KC WAS: Touchdown
6 Q2 1:04 The Commanders converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +9% WAS WAS: Touchdown
7 Q3 10:19 The Chiefs converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +10% KC KC: Touchdown
8 Q3 8:25 The Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expectedJ. Lane dropped a catchable passDrops · 3 drops on 13 catchable balls before this +8% KC WAS: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Josh Simmons (KC T), out · 0.7 pts
  • Trey Smith (KC G), out · 0.5 pts
  • Jayden Daniels (WAS QB), out, replaced by m.mariota · 3.6 pts
  • Matt Gay (WAS K), out · 0.4 pts
  • Will Harris (WAS S), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Austin Ekeler (WAS RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Commanders 0% · Chiefs 100%

Final margin
Chiefs by 21
Luck in points
6.0 for the Chiefs
Luck-adjusted margin
Chiefs by 15.0
Replay with same day's form
Commanders 34% · Chiefs 66% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2025 games · Commanders · Chiefs

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