luckadjusted

Week 8 2025 · October 26, 2025

Browns at Patriots, Week 8 2025: who deserved to win?

The Patriots beat the Browns 32–13, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Patriots win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Patriots were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 13:12 left): the Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 9, worth 14 points of win probability to the Browns.

Final

Cleveland Browns 13
New England Patriots 32

October 26, 2025 · Gillette Stadium · Closing line: Patriots −7

Luck index +1 Patriots about even · −1 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 0, Patriots win 10.

  1. 1 CLE 21 NE 24
  2. 2 CLE 10 NE 20
  3. 3 CLE 10 NE 24
  4. 4 CLE 12 NE 30
  5. 5 CLE 3 NE 24
  6. 6 CLE 21 NE 45
  7. 7 CLE 6 NE 33
  8. 8 CLE 6 NE 37
  9. 9 CLE 3 NE 37
  10. 10 CLE 10 NE 52

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 1% of them, Patriots 99%. The line is what actually happened: Patriots by 19.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+0.0%
Browns by 9–160.0%
Browns by 1–80.4%
Level after regulation0.1%
Patriots by 1–82.2%
Patriots by 9–168.7%
Patriots by 17+88.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.2 points to the Patriots: the final margin was Patriots by 19, without the luck Patriots by 12.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • A. Borregales, 36 yds made · 92% expected
  • A. Szmyt, 47 yds missed · 77% expected
  • A. Borregales, 32 yds made · 95% expected
  • A. Borregales, 42 yds made · 84% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Browns 5 for 31 yards, Patriots 7 for 54 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 3:22 Face Mask on the Patriots (Brenden Schooler), 15 yards +4% CLE +0.9 pts
Q2 4:50 False Start on the Patriots, 4 yards · pre-snap +3% CLE +0.9 pts
Q2 0:29 False Start on the Patriots (Hunter Henry), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CLE +0.3 pts
Q3 15:00 Illegal Formation on the Patriots (Marte Mapu), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CLE +0.4 pts
Q3 13:20 Offensive Holding on the Patriots (Richie Grant), 10 yards +4% CLE +1.4 pts
Q3 6:43 Unnecessary Roughness on the Browns (Myles Harden), 14 yards +2% NE +1.2 pts
Q3 1:51 Defensive Holding on the Browns (Myles Harden), 5 yards 0% NE +1.2 pts
Q3 0:10 Defensive Holding on the Patriots (Carlton Davis), 5 yards 0% CLE +1.1 pts
Q4 12:18 Delay of Game on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NE +0.1 pts
Q4 8:01 Offensive Pass Interference on the Patriots (Stefon Diggs), 10 yards 0% CLE +1.3 pts
Q4 7:56 Defensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Myles Harden), 5 yards 0% NE +1.8 pts
Q4 4:11 Intentional Grounding on the Browns (Dillon Gabriel), 2 yards 0% NE +0.2 pts

Browns penalties, every game · Patriots penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Patriots’ chance of winning

As low as 27% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Patriots were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:30 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +7% CLE NE: Field goal
2 Q1 7:19 The Browns converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +10% CLE CLE: Touchdown
3 Q2 13:12 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expectedThe Patriots threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +14% CLE NE: Field goal
4 Q2 11:26 A. Szmyt missed 47-yard field goalKicks · 76% expected for him, 3 of 4 from 45+ before +8% NE CLE: Punt
5 Q2 8:25 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +10% CLE NE: Field goal
6 Q2 1:16 The Patriots converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +10% NE NE: Field goal
7 Q2 1:00 The Patriots fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% NE NE: Field goal
8 Q3 7:41 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedThe Browns threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +9% NE CLE: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Cornelius Lucas (CLE T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Cedric Tillman (CLE WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Dawand Jones (CLE T), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 1% · Patriots 99%

Final margin
Patriots by 19
Luck in points
6.2 for the Patriots
Luck-adjusted margin
Patriots by 12.8
Replay with same day's form
Browns 1% · Patriots 99% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2025 games · Browns · Patriots

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