luckadjusted

Week 8 2025 · October 23, 2025

Vikings at Chargers, Week 8 2025: who deserved to win?

The Chargers beat the Vikings 37–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Chargers win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Chargers were 59% favorites.

Final

Minnesota Vikings 10
Los Angeles Chargers 37

October 23, 2025 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Chargers −3

Luck index +2 Chargers about even · −2 Vikings

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Vikings win 0, Chargers win 10.

  1. 1 MIN 10 LAC 13
  2. 2 MIN 10 LAC 18
  3. 3 MIN 13 LAC 24
  4. 4 MIN 14 LAC 28
  5. 5 MIN 21 LAC 37
  6. 6 MIN 3 LAC 23
  7. 7 MIN 3 LAC 24
  8. 8 MIN 6 LAC 30
  9. 9 MIN 6 LAC 34
  10. 10 MIN 0 LAC 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Vikings win 2% of them, Chargers 98%. The line is what actually happened: Chargers by 27.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Vikings by 17+0.0%
Vikings by 9–160.3%
Vikings by 1–81.1%
Level after regulation0.4%
Chargers by 1–85.0%
Chargers by 9–1613.3%
Chargers by 17+79.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.7 points to the Chargers: the final margin was Chargers by 27, without the luck Chargers by 20.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • W. Reichard, 54 yds made · 70% expected
  • C. Dicker, 49 yds missed · 82% expected
  • W. Reichard, 53 yds missed · 72% expected
  • C. Dicker, 43 yds made · 87% expected
  • C. Dicker, 34 yds made · 96% expected
  • C. Dicker, 45 yds made · 87% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Vikings 8 for 66 yards, Chargers 8 for 46 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Vikings (Tyler Batty), 10 yards +3% LAC +0.9 pts
Q1 5:43 Roughing the Passer on the Vikings (Dallas Turner), 9 yards +3% LAC +0.9 pts
Q1 4:05 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Chargers (Oronde Gadsden II), 15 yards +3% MIN +1.3 pts
Q1 4:01 Illegal Formation on the Vikings (Ivan Pace), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LAC +0.4 pts
Q1 2:12 Defensive Offside on the Vikings (Jonathan Greenard), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LAC +0.6 pts
Q2 6:06 Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards +2% LAC +1.3 pts
Q2 4:12 Offensive Holding on the Chargers (Ja'Sir Taylor), 6 yards +1% MIN +0.5 pts
Q2 0:45 Kickoff Short of Landing Zone on the Chargers (Cameron Dicker), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% MIN 0.0 pts
Q3 10:01 Offensive Holding on the Vikings (Tyler Batty), 10 yards +1% LAC +0.9 pts
Q3 4:49 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIN +0.2 pts
Q3 4:46 Illegal Contact on the Chargers (Benjamin St-Juste), 5 yards, wiping out the play +3% MIN +2.8 pts
Q3 3:00 False Start on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIN +0.6 pts
Q4 12:59 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Vikings, 1 yard · pre-snap 0% LAC +0.3 pts
Q4 12:48 False Start on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MIN +1.0 pts
Q4 9:44 Face Mask on the Vikings (Josh Metellus), 16 yards 0% LAC +3.2 pts
Q4 1:52 Encroachment on the Chargers (Naquan Jones), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIN +0.5 pts

Vikings penalties, every game · Chargers penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Chargers’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chargers were ahead in it, below while the Vikings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:03 The Vikings converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +6% MIN MIN: Punt
2 Q1 10:56 The Chargers got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 52% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +6% LAC LAC: Touchdown
3 Q1 10:53 The Chargers converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +6% LAC LAC: Touchdown
4 Q1 5:43 Roughing the Passer on the Vikings (Dallas Turner), 9 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 852 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +3% LAC LAC: Touchdown
5 Q1 4:05 The Chargers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 25% expectedUnsportsmanlike Conduct on the Chargers (Oronde Gadsden II), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 216 snaps before, position avg 1 per 278 +3% LAC LAC: Touchdown
6 Q1 3:01 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +3% LAC MIN: Punt
7 Q2 6:10 C. Dicker missed 49-yard field goalKicks · 82% expected for him, 32 of 37 from 45+ before +4% MIN LAC: Touchdown
8 Q2 4:17 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +3% LAC MIN: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Austin Deculus (LAC T), out · 0.3 pts
  • Omarion Hampton (LAC RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Da'Shawn Hand (LAC DL), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Brian O'Neill (MIN T), out · 1.1 pts
  • Andrew Van Ginkel (MIN LB), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Vikings 0% · Chargers 100%

Final margin
Chargers by 27
Luck in points
6.7 for the Chargers
Luck-adjusted margin
Chargers by 20.3
Replay with same day's form
Vikings 2% · Chargers 98% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2025 games · Vikings · Chargers

More from Week 8 2025