2025 season · final

Washington Commanders, 2025: game by game

The Commanders went 5–12 in 2025; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 7.8 wins. Luck cost them 2.8: the 5th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 2–5.

Every game

How often the Commanders win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Giants	W 21–6	99%	+1
Week 2	@ Packers	L 18–27	8%	−8
Week 3	vs Raiders	W 41–24	81%	+19
Week 4	@ Falcons	L 27–34	23%	−23
Week 5	@ Chargers	W 27–10	82%	+18
Week 6	vs Bears	L 24–25	65%	−65
Week 7	@ Cowboys	L 22–44	40%	−40
Week 8	@ Chiefs	L 7–28	34%	−34
Week 9	vs Seahawks	L 14–38	18%	−18
Week 10	vs Lions	L 22–44	18%	−18
Week 11	@ Dolphins	L 13–16	47%	−47
Week 13	vs Broncos	L 26–27	51%	−51
Week 14	@ Vikings	L 0–31	32%	−32
Week 15	@ Giants	W 29–21	42%	+58
Week 16	vs Eagles	L 18–29	35%	−35
Week 17	vs Cowboys	L 23–30	70%	−70
Week 18	@ Eagles	W 24–17	39%	+61

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 +1 vs NYG

Wk 2 −8 @ GB

Wk 3 +19 vs LV

Wk 4 −23 @ ATL

Wk 5 +18 @ LAC

Wk 6 −65 vs CHI

Wk 7 −40 @ DAL

Wk 8 −34 @ KC

Wk 9 −18 vs SEA

Wk 10 −18 vs DET

Wk 11 −47 @ MIA

Wk 13 −51 vs DEN

Wk 14 −32 @ MIN

Wk 15 +58 @ NYG

Wk 16 −35 vs PHI

Wk 17 −70 vs DAL

Wk 18 +61 @ PHI

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Commanders’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Drops	+0.40	−7.2
Judgment calls	+0.38	+3.5
Rest	−0.07	−2.6
3rd & 4th downs	−0.19	−2.7
Fumble bounces	−0.46	−14.2
Kicks	−0.81	−1.2
Injuries	−0.86	−33.9