luckadjusted

Week 18 2025 · January 4, 2026

Commanders at Eagles, Week 18 2025: who deserved to win?

The Commanders beat the Eagles 24–17, but the Eagles played well enough to win it: they take 6 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 42 points of win probability to the Commanders.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:59 left): the Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 10, worth 19 points of win probability to the Commanders.

Final

Washington Commanders 24
Philadelphia Eagles 17

January 4, 2026 · Lincoln Financial Field · Closing line: Eagles −3

Luck index +61 Commanders very lucky · −61 Eagles

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Commanders win 4, Eagles win 6.

  1. 1 WAS 37 PHI 16
  2. 2 WAS 16 PHI 3
  3. 3 WAS 20 PHI 13
  4. 4 WAS 13 PHI 10
  5. 5 WAS 19 PHI 21
  6. 6 WAS 10 PHI 15
  7. 7 WAS 27 PHI 35
  8. 8 WAS 17 PHI 28
  9. 9 WAS 14 PHI 30
  10. 10 WAS 10 PHI 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Commanders win 39% of them, Eagles 61%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Commanders by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Commanders by 17+6.8%
Commanders by 9–1613.0%
Commanders by 1–817.8%
Level after regulation3.6%
Eagles by 1–828.1%
Eagles by 9–1616.0%
Eagles by 17+14.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +13.1 points to the Commanders: the final margin was Commanders by 7, without the luck Eagles by 6.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Moody, 24 yds missed · 97% expected
  • J. Moody, 56 yds made · 51% expected
  • J. Elliott, 39 yds made · 86% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Commanders 4 for 19 yards, Eagles 9 for 123 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:15 False Start on the Eagles (Cameron Latu), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WAS +0.4 pts
Q1 8:58 Defensive Holding on the Eagles (Jakorian Bennett), 5 yards +3% WAS +0.8 pts
Q2 9:57 Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Jakorian Bennett), 23 yards +9% WAS +2.8 pts
Q2 7:18 Defensive Offside on the Commanders (Drake Jackson), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% PHI +0.9 pts
Q2 1:53 Taunting on the Eagles (Darius Cooper), 15 yards +5% WAS +1.3 pts
Q3 11:58 False Start on the Eagles (Grant Calcaterra), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% WAS +1.5 pts
Q3 11:38 False Start on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% PHI +0.7 pts
Q3 11:04 Defensive Holding on the Eagles (Kelee Ringo), 5 yards +1% WAS +0.2 pts
Q4 12:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Mac McWilliams), 29 yards +13% WAS +2.7 pts
Q4 11:15 Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Jakorian Bennett), 4 yards +6% WAS +1.1 pts
Q4 11:15 False Start on the Commanders (Ben Sinnott), 4 yards · pre-snap +4% PHI +0.9 pts
Q4 8:37 Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Kelee Ringo), 32 yards +8% WAS +1.5 pts
Q4 3:21 False Start on the Commanders (Ben Sinnott), 5 yards · pre-snap +4% PHI +1.1 pts

Commanders penalties, every game · Eagles penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Eagles’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 83%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Eagles were ahead in it, below while the Commanders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:25 The Commanders converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +10% WAS WAS: Missed field goal
2 Q1 2:36 J. Moody missed 24-yard field goalKicks · 97% expected for him +9% PHI WAS: Touchdown
3 Q2 0:59 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expectedThe Eagles threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +19% WAS PHI: Punt
4 Q4 12:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Mac McWilliams), 29 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 21 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +13% WAS WAS: Touchdown
5 Q4 9:40 The Commanders converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +12% WAS WAS: Touchdown
6 Q4 2:37 The Commanders converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 65% expected +14% WAS WAS: Touchdown
7 Q4 1:58 The Eagles converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +12% PHI PHI: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 1:21 The Eagles were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +12% WAS PHI: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Dallas Goedert (PHI TE), out · 1.1 pts
  • Jalen Carter (PHI DT), out · 0.7 pts
  • Landon Dickerson (PHI G), out · 0.5 pts
  • Marcus Epps (PHI S), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jaelan Phillips (PHI LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Andrew Mukuba (PHI S), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Nakobe Dean (PHI LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Marcus Mariota (WAS QB), out, replaced by j.johnson · 2.8 pts
  • Laremy Tunsil (WAS T), out · 1.1 pts
  • Zach Ertz (WAS TE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Tyler Biadasz (WAS C), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Trey Amos (WAS CB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Commanders 13% · Eagles 87%

Final margin
Commanders by 7
Luck in points
13.1 for the Commanders
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 6.1
Replay with same day's form
Commanders 39% · Eagles 61% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2025 games · Commanders · Eagles

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