luckadjusted

Week 18 2025 · January 4, 2026

Cowboys at Giants, Week 18 2025: who deserved to win?

The Giants stole one. They beat the Cowboys 34–17, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Cowboys win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 14:21 left): Offensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Darius Slayton), 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 23 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Final

Dallas Cowboys 17
New York Giants 34

January 4, 2026 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Cowboys −3

Luck index +82 Giants very lucky · −82 Cowboys

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cowboys win 8, Giants win 2.

  1. 1 DAL 27 NYG 0
  2. 2 DAL 20 NYG 0
  3. 3 DAL 25 NYG 10
  4. 4 DAL 33 NYG 21
  5. 5 DAL 41 NYG 31
  6. 6 DAL 31 NYG 24
  7. 7 DAL 26 NYG 21
  8. 8 DAL 27 NYG 24
  9. 9 DAL 26 NYG 30
  10. 10 DAL 6 NYG 20

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cowboys win 82% of them, Giants 18%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Giants by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cowboys by 17+31.3%
Cowboys by 9–1621.7%
Cowboys by 1–826.8%
Level after regulation2.4%
Giants by 1–810.5%
Giants by 9–165.3%
Giants by 17+2.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.5 points to the Giants: the final margin was Giants by 17, without the luck Giants by 13.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Sauls, 45 yds made · 77% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 22 yds made · 100% expected
  • B. Sauls, 35 yds made · 91% expected
  • B. Sauls, 23 yds made · 99% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 57 yds missed · 64% expected
  • B. Sauls, 30 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Cowboys 9 for 94 yards, Giants 7 for 63 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Kickoff Short of Landing Zone on the Cowboys (Brandon Aubrey), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% NYG 0.0 pts
Q2 2:49 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Cowboys (Solomon Thomas), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NYG +0.2 pts
Q2 1:31 Tripping on the Giants, 15 yards +2% DAL +0.6 pts
Q2 1:21 Unnecessary Roughness on the Cowboys (Kenneth Murray), 15 yards +8% NYG +1.7 pts
Q2 0:36 False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% DAL +0.5 pts
Q2 0:20 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys (Phil Mafah), 10 yards +3% NYG +0.9 pts
Q3 15:00 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Cowboys (Phil Mafah), 10 yards +2% NYG +0.9 pts
Q3 12:35 Unnecessary Roughness on the Cowboys (Quinnen Williams), 15 yards +3% NYG +1.4 pts
Q3 11:36 Illegal Shift on the Giants, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +3% DAL +1.4 pts
Q3 9:53 Disqualification on the Cowboys (Donovan Ezeiruaku), 1 yard 0% NYG +0.1 pts
Q3 0:11 Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Rico Payton), 13 yards +3% DAL +1.9 pts
Q4 14:21 Offensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Darius Slayton), 10 yards, wiping out the play +20% DAL +8.7 pts
Q4 14:21 False Start on the Giants (Devin Singletary), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% DAL +0.8 pts
Q4 14:10 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Caelen Carson), 33 yards +8% NYG +3.1 pts
Q4 7:03 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Cowboys (Osa Odighizuwa), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYG +1.1 pts
Q4 2:51 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards 0% DAL +1.2 pts

Cowboys penalties, every game · Giants penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Giants’ chance of winning

As low as 30% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Giants were ahead in it, below while the Cowboys were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:06 The Cowboys fumbled and the Giants recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% NYG DAL: Field goal
2 Q2 14:57 The Giants converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +8% NYG NYG: Field goal
3 Q2 9:48 B. Sauls made 23-yard field goalKicks · 99% expected for him +7% DAL NYG: Touchdown
4 Q2 2:54 The Cowboys were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +15% NYG DAL: End of half
5 Q2 1:21 Unnecessary Roughness on the Cowboys (Kenneth Murray), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 12 flags in 4914 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +8% NYG NYG: Touchdown
6 Q2 0:31 The Giants converted 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +12% NYG NYG: Touchdown
7 Q4 14:21 Offensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Darius Slayton), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 12 flags in 5407 snaps before, position avg 1 per 403False Start on the Giants (Devin Singletary), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 5 flags in 4371 snaps before, position avg 1 per 829 +23% DAL DAL: Turnover
8 Q4 14:10 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Caelen Carson), 33 yardsJudgment calls · 6 flags in 451 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +8% NYG NYG: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Andrew Thomas (NYG T), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Wan'Dale Robinson (NYG WR), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Theo Johnson (NYG TE), out · 0.7 pts
  • Jevon Holland (NYG S), out · 0.6 pts
  • Cordale Flott (NYG CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • John Michael Schmitz (NYG C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Tyler Nubin (NYG S), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Kayvon Thibodeaux (NYG LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • DaRon Bland (DAL CB), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Tyler Guyton (DAL T), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Javonte Williams (DAL RB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • DeMarvion Overshown (DAL LB), out · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cowboys 22% · Giants 78%

Final margin
Giants by 17
Luck in points
3.5 for the Giants
Luck-adjusted margin
Giants by 13.5
Replay with same day's form
Cowboys 82% · Giants 18% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2025 games · Cowboys · Giants

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