luckadjusted

2025 NFL season · January 3, 2026–January 4

Week 18 2025: who deserved to win

6 of 16 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Browns beat the Bengals 20–18 in a game they win 2% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 18 2025 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 1 of 6 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Browns 20–18 @ Bengals 24% 2% Lucky
Steelers 26–24 vs Ravens 37% 40% Coin flip
Raiders 14–12 vs Chiefs 40% 55% Coin flip
Lions 19–16 @ Bears 40% 82% Deserved
Giants 34–17 vs Cowboys 41% 18% Lucky
Commanders 24–17 @ Eagles 41% 39% Lucky

Week 18 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Browns W 20–18 @ Bengals 2% +98
2 Giants W 34–17 vs Cowboys 18% +82
3 Falcons W 19–17 vs Saints 33% +67
4 Commanders W 24–17 @ Eagles 39% +61
5 Steelers W 26–24 vs Ravens 40% +60
6 Seahawks W 13–3 @ 49ers 45% +55
7 Raiders W 14–12 vs Chiefs 55% +45
8 Texans W 38–30 vs Colts 56% +45
9 Buccaneers W 16–14 vs Panthers 79% +21
10 Lions W 19–16 @ Bears 82% +18
11 Vikings W 16–3 vs Packers 87% +13
12 Broncos W 19–3 vs Chargers 90% +10
13 Rams W 37–20 vs Cardinals 92% +8
14 Jaguars W 41–7 vs Titans 99% +1
15 Patriots W 38–10 vs Dolphins 100% 0
16 Bills W 35–8 vs Jets 100% 0
17 Jets L 8–35 @ Bills 0% 0
18 Dolphins L 10–38 @ Patriots 0% 0
19 Titans L 7–41 @ Jaguars 1% −1
20 Cardinals L 20–37 @ Rams 8% −8
21 Chargers L 3–19 @ Broncos 10% −10
22 Packers L 3–16 @ Vikings 13% −13
23 Bears L 16–19 vs Lions 18% −18
24 Panthers L 14–16 @ Buccaneers 21% −21
25 Colts L 30–38 @ Texans 44% −45
26 Chiefs L 12–14 @ Raiders 45% −45
27 49ers L 3–13 vs Seahawks 55% −55
28 Ravens L 24–26 @ Steelers 60% −60
29 Eagles L 17–24 vs Commanders 61% −61
30 Saints L 17–19 @ Falcons 67% −67
31 Cowboys L 17–34 @ Giants 82% −82
32 Bengals L 18–20 vs Browns 98% −98