luckadjusted

Week 18 2025 · January 4, 2026

Chiefs at Raiders, Week 18 2025: who deserved to win?

The Raiders beat the Chiefs 14–12, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Raiders win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 37 points of win probability to the Raiders.

Before kickoff the Chiefs were 60% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 0:13 left): D. Carlson made 60-yard field goal, worth 38 points of win probability to the Raiders.

Final

Kansas City Chiefs 12
Las Vegas Raiders 14

January 4, 2026 · Allegiant Stadium · Closing line: Chiefs −3.5

Luck index +45 Raiders lucky · −45 Chiefs

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chiefs win 4, Raiders win 6.

  1. 1 KC 30 LV 10
  2. 2 KC 30 LV 17
  3. 3 KC 15 LV 7
  4. 4 KC 23 LV 20
  5. 5 KC 14 LV 16
  6. 6 KC 10 LV 16
  7. 7 KC 26 LV 35
  8. 8 KC 0 LV 12
  9. 9 KC 7 LV 23
  10. 10 KC 0 LV 23

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chiefs win 45% of them, Raiders 55%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Raiders by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chiefs by 17+9.2%
Chiefs by 9–1615.2%
Chiefs by 1–820.3%
Level after regulation5.1%
Raiders by 1–820.9%
Raiders by 9–1618.1%
Raiders by 17+11.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +14.2 points to the Raiders: the final margin was Raiders by 2, without the luck Chiefs by 12.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • H. Butker, 36 yds made · 94% expected
  • D. Carlson, 32 yds made · 96% expected
  • D. Carlson, 23 yds made · 99% expected
  • H. Butker, 40 yds made · 90% expected
  • D. Carlson, 55 yds made · 68% expected
  • H. Butker, 47 yds made · 84% expected
  • H. Butker, 41 yds made · 89% expected
  • D. Carlson, 60 yds made · 61% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Chiefs 7 for 45 yards, Raiders 2 for 10 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:29 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Chiefs, 5 yards, wiping out the play +6% LV +2.0 pts
Q1 2:14 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Chiefs, 10 yards +1% LV +0.9 pts
Q2 15:00 False Start on the Chiefs (Travis Kelce), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LV +0.6 pts
Q2 5:40 Defensive Holding on the Chiefs (Zacch Pickens), 5 yards +2% LV +1.0 pts
Q2 2:57 Defensive Holding on the Chiefs (Jerry Tillery), 5 yards, wiping out the play +8% LV +1.6 pts
Q2 1:52 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% LV +1.7 pts
Q3 14:10 False Start on the Raiders (Alex Bachman), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% KC +0.7 pts
Q3 1:25 False Start on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% KC +0.7 pts
Q4 3:42 False Start on the Chiefs, 5 yards · pre-snap +8% LV +0.4 pts

Chiefs penalties, every game · Raiders penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Raiders’ chance of winning

As low as 33% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Raiders were ahead in it, below while the Chiefs were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 3:02 The Chiefs were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expectedThe Chiefs fumbled and the Raiders recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +19% LV KC: End of half
2 Q3 0:20 The Raiders converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +13% LV LV: Field goal
3 Q4 13:21 D. Carlson made 55-yard field goalKicks · 68% expected for him, 56 of 77 from 45+ before +12% LV LV: Punt
4 Q4 11:36 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 21% expectedT. Lockett dropped a catchable passDrops · 7 drops on 275 catchable balls before this +11% KC LV: Punt
5 Q4 4:37 The Raiders fumbled and the Chiefs recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +14% KC LV: Punt
6 Q4 3:42 The Chiefs were stopped on 3rd & 183rd & 4th downs · 18% expectedFalse Start on the Chiefs, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +16% LV KC: Field goal
7 Q4 1:50 The Chiefs were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +12% LV KC: Field goal
8 Q4 0:13 The game turned hereD. Carlson made 60-yard field goalKicks · 61% expected for him, 57 of 78 from 45+ before +38% LV –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Maxx Crosby (LV DE), out (IR) · 1.5 pts
  • Brock Bowers (LV TE), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Geno Smith (LV QB), out, replaced by a.o'connell · 0.9 pts
  • Jeremy Chinn (LV S), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Jordan Meredith (LV C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Dylan Parham (LV G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Adam Butler (LV DT), out · 0.3 pts
  • Kyu Blu Kelly (LV CB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Patrick Mahomes (KC QB), out (IR), replaced by c.oladokun · 7.1 pts
  • Trent McDuffie (KC CB), out (IR) · 1.4 pts
  • Jawaan Taylor (KC T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Josh Simmons (KC T), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Xavier Worthy (KC WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Rashee Rice (KC WR), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Jaylen Watson (KC CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Trey Smith (KC G), out · 0.5 pts
  • Leo Chenal (KC LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chiefs 79% · Raiders 21%

Final margin
Raiders by 2
Luck in points
14.2 for the Raiders
Luck-adjusted margin
Chiefs by 12.2
Replay with same day's form
Chiefs 45% · Raiders 55% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2025 games · Chiefs · Raiders

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