luckadjusted

Week 18 2025 · January 4, 2026

Jets at Bills, Week 18 2025: who deserved to win?

The Bills beat the Jets 35–8, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Bills win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Bills were 82% favorites.

Final

New York Jets 8
Buffalo Bills 35

January 4, 2026 · New Era Field · Closing line: Bills −12.5

Luck index 0 Bills about even · 0 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jets win 0, Bills win 10.

  1. 1 NYJ 9 BUF 17
  2. 2 NYJ 7 BUF 20
  3. 3 NYJ 3 BUF 19
  4. 4 NYJ 0 BUF 20
  5. 5 NYJ 0 BUF 22
  6. 6 NYJ 7 BUF 31
  7. 7 NYJ 3 BUF 30
  8. 8 NYJ 10 BUF 41
  9. 9 NYJ 3 BUF 38
  10. 10 NYJ 3 BUF 44

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jets win 0% of them, Bills 100%. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 27.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jets by 17+0.0%
Jets by 9–160.0%
Jets by 1–80.1%
Level after regulation0.0%
Bills by 1–80.4%
Bills by 9–162.2%
Bills by 17+97.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.2 points to the Bills: the final margin was Bills by 27, without the luck Bills by 25.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Jets 4 for 27 yards, Bills 3 for 28 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:05 Offensive Too Many Men on Field on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% BUF +0.6 pts
Q2 14:08 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% NYJ +3.2 pts
Q2 13:34 Face Mask on the Jets (Keidron Smith), 12 yards +3% BUF +1.3 pts
Q3 12:52 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Bills (A.J. Epenesa), 15 yards +1% NYJ +1.3 pts
Q3 7:37 False Start on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BUF +0.7 pts
Q3 0:15 Delay of Game on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NYJ +0.4 pts
Q4 8:03 Unnecessary Roughness on the Bills (T.J. Sanders), 3 yards 0% NYJ +0.7 pts

Jets penalties, every game · Bills penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Bills’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bills were ahead in it, below while the Jets were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 5:20 K. Coleman dropped a catchable passDrops · 7 drops on 84 catchable balls before this +4% NYJ BUF: Turnover on downs
2 Q1 4:38 The Bills were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected +7% NYJ BUF: Touchdown
3 Q2 15:00 The Bills were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +4% NYJ BUF: Touchdown
4 Q2 14:52 The Bills converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +7% BUF BUF: Touchdown
5 Q2 14:08 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% NYJ NYJ: Turnover on downs
6 Q2 13:34 Face Mask on the Jets (Keidron Smith), 12 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 148 snaps before, position avg 1 per 244 +3% BUF BUF: Touchdown
7 Q2 7:55 The Jets were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected +3% BUF NYJ: Punt
8 Q2 2:00 A. Mitchell dropped a catchable passDrops · 5 drops on 67 catchable balls before this +3% BUF NYJ: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Dion Dawkins (BUF T), out · 1.3 pts
  • Joey Bosa (BUF DE), out · 0.7 pts
  • Jordan Poyer (BUF S), out · 0.5 pts
  • Terrel Bernard (BUF LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • DaQuan Jones (BUF DT), out · 0.3 pts
  • Justin Fields (NYJ QB), out (IR), replaced by b.cook · 1.4 pts
  • Brandon Stephens (NYJ CB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Tony Adams (NYJ S), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Mason Taylor (NYJ TE), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Breece Hall (NYJ RB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Azareye'h Thomas (NYJ CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Micheal Clemons (NYJ DL), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jets 0% · Bills 100%

Final margin
Bills by 27
Luck in points
1.2 for the Bills
Luck-adjusted margin
Bills by 25.8
Replay with same day's form
Jets 0% · Bills 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2025 games · Jets · Bills

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