2025 season · final
Buffalo Bills, 2025: game by game
The Bills went 12–5 in 2025; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 13.1 wins. Luck cost them 1.1: the 12th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 5–3.
Playoffs: 1–1, replay wins 1.0.
Every game
How often the Bills win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Ravens | W 41–40 | 65% | +35 |
| Week 2 | @ Jets | W 30–10 | 98% | +2 |
| Week 3 | vs Dolphins | W 31–21 | 88% | +12 |
| Week 4 | vs Saints | W 31–19 | 91% | +9 |
| Week 5 | vs Patriots | L 20–23 | 62% | −62 |
| Week 6 | @ Falcons | L 14–24 | 62% | −62 |
| Week 8 | @ Panthers | W 40–9 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 9 | vs Chiefs | W 28–21 | 87% | +13 |
| Week 10 | @ Dolphins | L 13–30 | 45% | −45 |
| Week 11 | vs Buccaneers | W 44–32 | 66% | +34 |
| Week 12 | @ Texans | L 19–23 | 64% | −64 |
| Week 13 | @ Steelers | W 26–7 | 92% | +8 |
| Week 14 | vs Bengals | W 39–34 | 58% | +42 |
| Week 15 | @ Patriots | W 35–31 | 51% | +49 |
| Week 16 | @ Browns | W 23–20 | 95% | +5 |
| Week 17 | vs Eagles | L 12–13 | 84% | −84 |
| Week 18 | vs Jets | W 35–8 | 100% | 0 |
| Wild Card | @ Jaguars | W 27–24 | 44% | +56 |
| Divisional round | @ Broncos | L 30–33 | 51% | −51 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Bills’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.09 | −1.6 |
| Kicks | +0.05 | −4.3 |
| Rest | −0.05 | −1.4 |
| Judgment calls | −0.07 | −3.3 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.11 | −7.9 |
| Injuries | −0.16 | −6.5 |
| Drops | −0.26 | −5.9 |