luckadjusted

Week 11 2025 · November 16, 2025

Buccaneers at Bills, Week 11 2025: who deserved to win?

The Bills beat the Buccaneers 44–32 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Bills were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 4:05 left): the Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 6, worth 26 points of win probability to the Bills.

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 32
Buffalo Bills 44

November 16, 2025 · New Era Field · Closing line: Bills −6

Luck index +34 Bills lucky · −34 Buccaneers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Buccaneers win 3, Bills win 7.

  1. 1 TB 39 BUF 19
  2. 2 TB 26 BUF 16
  3. 3 TB 35 BUF 32
  4. 4 TB 27 BUF 29
  5. 5 TB 21 BUF 27
  6. 6 TB 21 BUF 31
  7. 7 TB 15 BUF 28
  8. 8 TB 21 BUF 36
  9. 9 TB 31 BUF 51
  10. 10 TB 20 BUF 48

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Buccaneers win 34% of them, Bills 66%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 12.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Buccaneers by 17+6.3%
Buccaneers by 9–169.5%
Buccaneers by 1–818.2%
Level after regulation2.8%
Bills by 1–823.1%
Bills by 9–1618.9%
Bills by 17+21.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.4 points to the Bills: the final margin was Bills by 12, without the luck Bills by 6.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. McLaughlin, 23 yds made · 99% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 24 yds made · 98% expected
  • M. Prater, 39 yds made · 82% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Buccaneers 2 for 30 yards, Bills 7 for 45 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 0:04 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Bills (Matt Milano), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% TB +0.7 pts
Q2 1:02 Roughing the Passer on the Buccaneers (Logan Hall), 15 yards +3% BUF +1.0 pts
Q2 0:16 Defensive Delay of Game on the Bills (Javon Solomon), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% TB +0.5 pts
Q2 0:05 Defensive Holding on the Bills, 5 yards +5% TB +0.3 pts
Q3 14:20 False Start on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% TB +0.6 pts
Q3 13:22 Illegal Forward Pass on the Bills (Josh Allen), 5 yards +1% TB +0.4 pts
Q4 11:17 False Start on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% TB +0.6 pts
Q4 2:56 Face Mask on the Buccaneers (Jacob Parrish), 15 yards +4% BUF +1.9 pts
Q4 1:57 Roughing the Passer on the Bills (Joey Bosa), 15 yards +1% TB +0.6 pts

Buccaneers penalties, every game · Bills penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Bills’ chance of winning

As low as 31% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bills were ahead in it, below while the Buccaneers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 9:01 The Bills converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +13% BUF BUF: Touchdown
2 Q2 6:30 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +10% TB TB: Touchdown
3 Q2 4:30 The Bills were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expectedThe Bills threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +14% TB BUF: Touchdown
4 Q2 0:45 The Bills converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +20% BUF BUF: Touchdown
5 Q2 0:01 C. McLaughlin made 24-yard field goalKicks · 98% expected for him +9% BUF TB: Punt
6 Q3 4:05 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expectedThe Buccaneers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +26% BUF TB: Touchdown
7 Q4 13:45 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +12% TB TB: Touchdown
8 Q4 7:32 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expectedS. Shepard dropped a catchable passDrops · 6 drops on 101 catchable balls before this +10% BUF TB: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Keon Coleman (BUF WR), out · 0.5 pts
  • Taylor Rapp (BUF S), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Ed Oliver (BUF DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Michael Hoecht (BUF DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Shaq Thompson (BUF LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Mike Evans (TB WR), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Bucky Irving (TB RB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Haason Reddick (TB LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Ben Bredeson (TB G), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Buccaneers 10% · Bills 90%

Final margin
Bills by 12
Luck in points
5.4 for the Bills
Luck-adjusted margin
Bills by 6.6
Replay with same day's form
Buccaneers 34% · Bills 66% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2025 games · Buccaneers · Bills

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