2025 season · final
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 2025: game by game
The Buccaneers went 8–9 in 2025; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 8.5 wins. Luck cost them 0.5: the 16th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 6–6.
Every game
How often the Buccaneers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Falcons | W 23–20 | 65% | +35 |
| Week 2 | @ Texans | W 20–19 | 77% | +23 |
| Week 3 | vs Jets | W 29–27 | 63% | +37 |
| Week 4 | vs Eagles | L 25–31 | 75% | −75 |
| Week 5 | @ Seahawks | W 38–35 | 34% | +66 |
| Week 6 | vs 49ers | W 30–19 | 68% | +32 |
| Week 7 | @ Lions | L 9–24 | 33% | −33 |
| Week 8 | @ Saints | W 23–3 | 69% | +31 |
| Week 10 | vs Patriots | L 23–28 | 15% | −15 |
| Week 11 | @ Bills | L 32–44 | 34% | −34 |
| Week 12 | @ Rams | L 7–34 | 5% | −5 |
| Week 13 | vs Cardinals | W 20–17 | 7% | +93 |
| Week 14 | vs Saints | L 20–24 | 49% | −49 |
| Week 15 | vs Falcons | L 28–29 | 80% | −80 |
| Week 16 | @ Panthers | L 20–23 | 47% | −47 |
| Week 17 | @ Dolphins | L 17–20 | 52% | −52 |
| Week 18 | vs Panthers | W 16–14 | 79% | +21 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Buccaneers’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Fumble bounces | +0.29 | +12.6 |
| Injuries | +0.12 | +4.2 |
| Drops | +0.07 | +4.5 |
| Kicks | +0.04 | +3.8 |
| Judgment calls | −0.07 | +12.9 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.11 | −4.1 |