luckadjusted

Week 5 2025 · October 5, 2025

Buccaneers at Seahawks, Week 5 2025: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers beat the Seahawks 38–35, but the Seahawks played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 38 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Before kickoff the Seahawks were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 3:25 left): the Seahawks converted 4th & 2, worth 25 points of win probability to the Seahawks.

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38
Seattle Seahawks 35

October 5, 2025 · Lumen Field · Closing line: Seahawks −3.5

Luck index +66 Buccaneers very lucky · −66 Seahawks

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Buccaneers win 3, Seahawks win 7.

  1. 1 TB 30 SEA 12
  2. 2 TB 37 SEA 28
  3. 3 TB 31 SEA 27
  4. 4 TB 31 SEA 33
  5. 5 TB 24 SEA 28
  6. 6 TB 17 SEA 24
  7. 7 TB 24 SEA 34
  8. 8 TB 24 SEA 37
  9. 9 TB 13 SEA 30
  10. 10 TB 9 SEA 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Buccaneers win 34% of them, Seahawks 66%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Buccaneers by 17+5.2%
Buccaneers by 9–168.6%
Buccaneers by 1–819.4%
Level after regulation2.4%
Seahawks by 1–825.9%
Seahawks by 9–1619.1%
Seahawks by 17+19.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.0 points to the Buccaneers: the final margin was Buccaneers by 3, without the luck Seahawks by 2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. McLaughlin, 30 yds made · 97% expected
  • J. Myers, 44 yds missed · 81% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 36 yds made · 92% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 39 yds made · 88% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Buccaneers 4 for 37 yards, Seahawks 7 for 56 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 5:56 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% TB +1.8 pts
Q1 0:46 Roughing the Passer on the Seahawks (Byron Murphy), 16 yards +2% TB +1.9 pts
Q2 13:32 Defensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Jacob Parrish), 12 yards +1% SEA +0.8 pts
Q2 12:41 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Seahawks, 5 yards, wiping out the play +4% TB +1.5 pts
Q3 7:52 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks (Jake Bobo), 10 yards +1% TB +0.8 pts
Q3 2:04 Illegal Formation on the Buccaneers (Cade Otton), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +7% SEA +1.7 pts
Q3 0:48 Unnecessary Roughness on the Seahawks (Leonard Williams), 0 yards +2% TB +0.3 pts
Q4 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks (Jake Bobo), 10 yards +8% TB +1.4 pts
Q4 14:37 Illegal Contact on the Buccaneers (Zyon McCollum), 5 yards, wiping out the play +19% SEA +4.7 pts
Q4 13:23 Offensive Too Many Men on Field on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% TB +0.8 pts
Q4 5:19 Roughing the Passer on the Buccaneers (Logan Hall), 15 yards +8% SEA +2.1 pts

Buccaneers penalties, every game · Seahawks penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Seahawks’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 87%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Seahawks were ahead in it, below while the Buccaneers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 4:10 J. Myers missed 44-yard field goalKicks · 81% expected for him +14% TB SEA: Punt
2 Q3 7:56 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +16% TB TB: Touchdown
3 Q3 4:17 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +12% SEA SEA: Touchdown
4 Q3 1:37 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +23% TB TB: Touchdown
5 Q4 14:37 Illegal Contact on the Buccaneers (Zyon McCollum), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 14 flags in 3201 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +19% SEA SEA: Touchdown
6 Q4 3:25 The Seahawks converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +25% SEA SEA: Touchdown
7 Q4 0:58 The Seahawks threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 46% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +20% TB –
8 Q4 0:03 C. McLaughlin made 39-yard field goalKicks · 88% expected for him +19% TB –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Devon Witherspoon (SEA CB), out · 1.4 pts
  • DeMarcus Lawrence (SEA DE), out · 0.7 pts
  • Julian Love (SEA S), out · 0.5 pts
  • Julian Love (SEA SS), out · 0.5 pts
  • Mike Evans (TB WR), out · 1.0 pts
  • Jamel Dean (TB CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Calijah Kancey (TB DE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Luke Goedeke (TB T), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Jalen McMillan (TB WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Luke Goedeke (TB G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Bucky Irving (TB RB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Cody Mauch (TB G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Calijah Kancey (TB DL), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Buccaneers 31% · Seahawks 69%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 3
Luck in points
5.0 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Seahawks by 2.0
Replay with same day's form
Buccaneers 34% · Seahawks 66% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2025 games · Buccaneers · Seahawks

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