luckadjusted

Week 5 2025 · October 5, 2025

Titans at Cardinals, Week 5 2025: who deserved to win?

The Titans beat the Cardinals 22–21, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Titans win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 30 points of win probability to the Titans.

Before kickoff the Cardinals were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:03 left): J. Slye made 29-yard field goal, worth 31 points of win probability to the Titans.

Final

Tennessee Titans 22
Arizona Cardinals 21

October 5, 2025 · State Farm Stadium · Closing line: Cardinals −7.5

Luck index +53 Titans lucky · −53 Cardinals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Titans win 5, Cardinals win 5.

  1. 1 TEN 31 ARI 6
  2. 2 TEN 20 ARI 3
  3. 3 TEN 28 ARI 16
  4. 4 TEN 29 ARI 23
  5. 5 TEN 36 ARI 33
  6. 6 TEN 20 ARI 22
  7. 7 TEN 14 ARI 19
  8. 8 TEN 10 ARI 20
  9. 9 TEN 17 ARI 32
  10. 10 TEN 3 ARI 28

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Titans win 47% of them, Cardinals 53%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Titans by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Titans by 17+11.2%
Titans by 9–1614.7%
Titans by 1–819.7%
Level after regulation5.8%
Cardinals by 1–821.1%
Cardinals by 9–1616.3%
Cardinals by 17+11.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.1 points to the Titans: the final margin was Titans by 1, without the luck Cardinals by 0.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Slye, 44 yds made · 83% expected
  • J. Slye, 51 yds made · 71% expected
  • J. Slye, 29 yds made · 96% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Titans 6 for 35 yards, Cardinals 8 for 47 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:15 False Start on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% TEN +0.8 pts
Q1 11:11 Defensive Offside on the Titans (Jihad Ward), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% ARI 0.0 pts
Q1 0:39 Offensive Holding on the Titans (Kendell Brooks), 10 yards +1% ARI +0.9 pts
Q2 5:13 Illegal Formation on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TEN +0.2 pts
Q2 5:05 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Titans (Marcus Harris), 10 yards +1% ARI +0.9 pts
Q2 4:48 Illegal Contact on the Cardinals (Kei'Trel Clark), 5 yards +1% TEN +1.2 pts
Q2 2:00 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 5 yards, wiping out the play +6% TEN +3.4 pts
Q2 1:47 Intentional Grounding on the Cardinals (Kyler Murray), 12 yards +2% TEN +1.0 pts
Q3 12:51 Illegal Formation on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ARI +0.5 pts
Q3 6:46 False Start on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TEN +0.7 pts
Q3 6:38 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards 0% TEN +0.9 pts
Q4 14:16 Illegal Contact on the Titans (Roger McCreary), 5 yards 0% ARI +1.4 pts
Q4 10:33 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Mack Wilson), 0 yards 0% TEN 0.0 pts
Q4 10:26 Illegal Formation on the Titans (Julius Chestnut), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ARI +0.5 pts

Titans penalties, every game · Cardinals penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Cardinals’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 98%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cardinals were ahead in it, below while the Titans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 0:46 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +5% ARI ARI: Touchdown
2 Q2 15:00 The Titans got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +4% TEN TEN: Punt
3 Q2 2:00 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% TEN TEN: Turnover on downs
4 Q2 1:47 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expectedIntentional Grounding on the Cardinals (Kyler Murray), 12 yardsJudgment calls · 10 flags in 5680 snaps before, position avg 1 per 625 +6% TEN ARI: Punt
5 Q4 11:54 The Titans converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +4% TEN TEN: Touchdown
6 Q4 4:53 The Titans converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expectedThe Cardinals fumbled and the Titans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50The Titans were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the TitansSpecial teams +13% TEN TEN: Touchdown
7 Q4 1:19 The Titans converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +4% TEN TEN: Field goal
8 Q4 0:03 J. Slye made 29-yard field goalKicks · 96% expected for him +31% TEN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Sean Murphy-Bunting (ARI CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Garrett Williams (ARI CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Evan Brown (ARI C), out · 0.4 pts
  • Evan Brown (ARI OL), out · 0.4 pts
  • Max Melton (ARI CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Christian Jones (ARI T), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Darius Robinson (ARI DL), out · 0.2 pts
  • L.J. Collier (ARI DT), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Darius Robinson (ARI DT), out · 0.1 pts
  • JC Latham (TEN T), out · 0.7 pts
  • John Ojukwu (TEN T), out · 0.4 pts
  • John Ojukwu (TEN OL), out · 0.3 pts
  • Mike Brown (TEN FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • T'Vondre Sweat (TEN NT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Will Levis (TEN QB), out (IR), replaced by c.ward · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Titans 50% · Cardinals 50%

Final margin
Titans by 1
Luck in points
1.1 for the Titans
Luck-adjusted margin
Cardinals by 0.1
Replay with same day's form
Titans 47% · Cardinals 53% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2025 games · Titans · Cardinals

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