luckadjusted

Week 5 2025 · October 5, 2025

Raiders at Colts, Week 5 2025: who deserved to win?

The Colts beat the Raiders 40–6 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Colts were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 9:38 left): Blocked punt by the Colts, worth 9 points of win probability to the Colts.

Final

Las Vegas Raiders 6
Indianapolis Colts 40

October 5, 2025 · Lucas Oil Stadium · Closing line: Colts −7

Luck index +28 Colts lucky · −28 Raiders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Raiders win 3, Colts win 7.

  1. 1 LV 24 IND 10
  2. 2 LV 23 IND 17
  3. 3 LV 16 IND 13
  4. 4 LV 6 IND 7
  5. 5 LV 12 IND 16
  6. 6 LV 19 IND 26
  7. 7 LV 14 IND 24
  8. 8 LV 10 IND 24
  9. 9 LV 7 IND 25
  10. 10 LV 3 IND 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Raiders win 28% of them, Colts 72%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Colts by 34.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Raiders by 17+2.2%
Raiders by 9–166.9%
Raiders by 1–815.6%
Level after regulation5.1%
Colts by 1–827.2%
Colts by 9–1622.3%
Colts by 17+20.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.1 points to the Colts: the final margin was Colts by 34, without the luck Colts by 26.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Carlson, 24 yds made · 99% expected
  • D. Carlson, 57 yds missed · 66% expected
  • D. Carlson, 37 yds made · 92% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Raiders 6 for 65 yards, Colts 8 for 71 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 3:21 Offensive Holding on the Colts (Joe Bachie), 10 yards +1% LV +1.0 pts
Q2 13:01 Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yards +7% LV +1.9 pts
Q2 10:47 Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards +4% IND +0.9 pts
Q2 8:53 Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Devin White), 5 yards +2% IND +1.4 pts
Q2 7:56 Roughing the Kicker on the Raiders (Tristin McCollum), 15 yards +3% IND +1.5 pts
Q2 7:56 Kickoff Out of Bounds on the Colts (Rigoberto Sanchez), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% LV 0.0 pts
Q2 6:39 Tripping on the Colts (Joe Bachie), 15 yards +3% LV +2.0 pts
Q2 1:36 Defensive Offside on the Raiders (Adam Butler), 6 yards · pre-snap +1% IND +1.0 pts
Q2 1:25 Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Kyu Blu Kelly), 19 yards +3% IND +1.8 pts
Q3 6:54 Offensive Pass Interference on the Colts (Tyler Warren), 10 yards 0% LV 0.0 pts
Q3 2:22 Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards 0% IND +1.0 pts
Q3 0:40 Defensive Pass Interference on the Colts (Mekhi Blackmon), 15 yards 0% LV +2.9 pts
Q4 13:00 Unnecessary Roughness on the Colts (Zaire Franklin), 6 yards 0% LV +0.9 pts
Q4 6:52 Delay of Game on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LV +0.3 pts

Raiders penalties, every game · Colts penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Colts’ chance of winning

As low as 36% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Colts were ahead in it, below while the Raiders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:14 The Raiders converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +4% LV LV: Field goal
2 Q2 14:21 The Colts converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +8% IND IND: Touchdown
3 Q2 13:01 Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yardsJudgment calls +7% LV LV: Punt
4 Q2 12:30 The Colts converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +7% IND IND: Touchdown
5 Q2 9:38 Blocked punt by the ColtsSpecial teams +9% IND IND: Touchdown
6 Q2 7:14 The Raiders converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +4% LV LV: Turnover
7 Q2 4:46 The Raiders converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +8% LV LV: Turnover
8 Q2 3:59 The Raiders were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +6% IND LV: Missed field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Alec Pierce (IND WR), out · 0.9 pts
  • Jaylon Jones (IND CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Brock Bowers (LV TE), out · 1.0 pts
  • Kolton Miller (LV T), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Germaine Pratt (LV LB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Eric Stokes (LV CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Michael Mayer (LV TE), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Raiders 0% · Colts 100%

Final margin
Colts by 34
Luck in points
7.1 for the Colts
Luck-adjusted margin
Colts by 26.9
Replay with same day's form
Raiders 28% · Colts 72% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2025 games · Raiders · Colts

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