luckadjusted

Week 5 2025 · October 6, 2025

Chiefs at Jaguars, Week 5 2025: who deserved to win?

The Jaguars beat the Chiefs 31–28, but the Chiefs played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 91 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Before kickoff the Chiefs were 60% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 0:38 left): Defensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs (Chamarri Conner), 13 yards, wiping out the play, worth 43 points of win probability to the Jaguars. The biggest single swing (Q3, 2:36 left): Return touchdown by the Jaguars.

Final

Kansas City Chiefs 28
Jacksonville Jaguars 31

October 6, 2025 · TIAA Bank Stadium · Closing line: Chiefs −3.5

Luck index +74 Jaguars very lucky · −74 Chiefs

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chiefs win 7, Jaguars win 3.

  1. 1 KC 31 JAX 6
  2. 2 KC 34 JAX 14
  3. 3 KC 32 JAX 17
  4. 4 KC 31 JAX 20
  5. 5 KC 31 JAX 23
  6. 6 KC 33 JAX 28
  7. 7 KC 20 JAX 17
  8. 8 KC 35 JAX 38
  9. 9 KC 17 JAX 24
  10. 10 KC 16 JAX 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chiefs win 74% of them, Jaguars 26%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jaguars by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chiefs by 17+22.6%
Chiefs by 9–1622.8%
Chiefs by 1–826.7%
Level after regulation4.2%
Jaguars by 1–814.6%
Jaguars by 9–166.0%
Jaguars by 17+3.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +14.5 points to the Jaguars: the final margin was Jaguars by 3, without the luck Chiefs by 11.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Chiefs 13 for 109 yards, Jaguars 4 for 25 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:48 Illegal Formation on the Chiefs, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +4% JAX +1.3 pts
Q1 9:31 Illegal Forward Pass on the Jaguars (Trevor Lawrence), 5 yards +1% KC +0.4 pts
Q1 6:47 Unnecessary Roughness on the Chiefs (Marquise Brown), 15 yards +4% JAX +1.4 pts
Q2 9:09 False Start on the Jaguars (Brenton Strange), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% KC +0.5 pts
Q2 9:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs (Jaylen Watson), 13 yards +4% JAX +2.8 pts
Q2 0:35 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards +5% KC +0.3 pts
Q3 11:34 Illegal Contact on the Chiefs (Jaylen Watson), 5 yards +1% JAX +0.3 pts
Q3 2:19 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs (Jack Cochrane), 10 yards +2% JAX +0.8 pts
Q3 0:01 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 10 yards +3% JAX +0.9 pts
Q4 14:53 Delay of Game on the Chiefs, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% JAX +0.4 pts
Q4 10:06 Defensive Holding on the Chiefs (Derrick Nnadi), 5 yards +6% JAX +1.0 pts
Q4 8:08 Illegal Double-Team Block on the Chiefs (Nikko Remigio), 13 yards +2% JAX +1.2 pts
Q4 1:45 Kickoff Out of Bounds on the Chiefs (Harrison Butker), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% JAX 0.0 pts
Q4 0:44 Delay of Game on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +5% KC +0.7 pts
Q4 0:38 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs (Chamarri Conner), 13 yards, wiping out the play +43% JAX +8.5 pts
Q4 0:23 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs (Jack Cochrane), 10 yards +18% JAX +0.8 pts
Q4 0:03 Delay of Game on the Chiefs, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% JAX 0.0 pts

Chiefs penalties, every game · Jaguars penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Jaguars’ chance of winning

As low as 12% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jaguars were ahead in it, below while the Chiefs were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 5:26 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +9% KC KC: Touchdown
2 Q2 13:41 The Jaguars were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 64% expectedThe Jaguars fumbled and the Chiefs recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% KC JAX: Touchdown
3 Q3 2:36 The Chiefs threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the JaguarsSpecial teams +48% JAX KC: Punt
4 Q4 8:13 C. Little made 52-yard field goalKicks · 66% expected for him, 9 of 12 from 45+ before +11% JAX JAX: Touchdown
5 Q4 1:01 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +30% JAX JAX: Touchdown
6 Q4 0:38 The game turned hereDefensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs (Chamarri Conner), 13 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 4 flags in 2104 snaps before, position avg 1 per 244 +43% JAX JAX: Touchdown
7 Q4 0:23 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs (Jack Cochrane), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 1305 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +18% JAX –
8 Q4 0:16 The Chiefs got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +10% KC KC: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Travon Walker (JAX DE), out · 0.8 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chiefs 87% · Jaguars 13%

Final margin
Jaguars by 3
Luck in points
14.5 for the Jaguars
Luck-adjusted margin
Chiefs by 11.5
Replay with same day's form
Chiefs 74% · Jaguars 26% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2025 games · Chiefs · Jaguars

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