luckadjusted

Week 5 2025 · October 5, 2025

Texans at Ravens, Week 5 2025: who deserved to win?

The Texans beat the Ravens 44–10 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Ravens had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 13 points of win probability to the Ravens.

Before kickoff the Texans were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 12:04 left): the Texans were stopped on 3rd & 5, worth 9 points of win probability to the Ravens.

Final

Houston Texans 44
Baltimore Ravens 10

October 5, 2025 · M&T Bank Stadium · Closing line: Texans −2.5

Luck index +35 Texans lucky · −35 Ravens

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texans win 7, Ravens win 3.

  1. 1 HOU 37 BAL 10
  2. 2 HOU 42 BAL 24
  3. 3 HOU 30 BAL 17
  4. 4 HOU 23 BAL 13
  5. 5 HOU 23 BAL 16
  6. 6 HOU 27 BAL 23
  7. 7 HOU 25 BAL 23
  8. 8 HOU 13 BAL 16
  9. 9 HOU 10 BAL 19
  10. 10 HOU 16 BAL 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texans win 65% of them, Ravens 35%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 34.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texans by 17+17.8%
Texans by 9–1619.9%
Texans by 1–826.6%
Level after regulation2.5%
Ravens by 1–818.4%
Ravens by 9–1610.0%
Ravens by 17+5.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +21.1 points to the Texans: the final margin was Texans by 34, without the luck Texans by 12.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • T. Loop, 27 yds made · 98% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 50 yds made · 74% expected
  • T. Loop, 55 yds missed · 67% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 57 yds made · 63% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 34 yds made · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Texans 4 for 26 yards, Ravens 9 for 49 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:39 Illegal Motion on the Ravens (Isaiah Likely), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% HOU +1.4 pts
Q2 13:17 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% BAL +2.4 pts
Q2 9:46 Player Out of Bounds on Kick on the Ravens, 5 yards, wiping out the play +1% HOU +0.8 pts
Q2 6:29 Offensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Jayden Higgins), 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% BAL +2.7 pts
Q2 5:31 False Start on the Ravens (Isaiah Likely), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% HOU +0.7 pts
Q2 1:56 Defensive Offside on the Ravens, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +4% HOU +2.3 pts
Q2 0:35 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens, 9 yards 0% HOU +0.5 pts
Q2 0:08 Illegal Contact on the Texans (M.J. Stewart), 5 yards 0% BAL +0.5 pts
Q3 9:38 False Start on the Ravens (Zay Flowers), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BAL +0.9 pts
Q3 3:11 Defensive Offside on the Texans (Will Anderson), 1 yard · pre-snap 0% BAL +0.6 pts
Q4 15:00 Face Mask on the Ravens (Malaki Starks), 2 yards 0% HOU +0.6 pts
Q4 13:48 Offensive Holding on the Ravens (Charlie Kolar), 8 yards 0% HOU +0.8 pts
Q4 8:59 Defensive Holding on the Ravens, 5 yards 0% HOU +0.9 pts

Texans penalties, every game · Ravens penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Ravens’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Ravens were ahead in it, below while the Texans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:50 The Texans converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +6% HOU HOU: Touchdown
2 Q1 4:18 The Ravens converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +8% BAL BAL: Field goal
3 Q2 14:55 The Texans converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +6% HOU HOU: Field goal
4 Q2 13:17 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +7% BAL BAL: Punt
5 Q2 12:04 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +9% BAL HOU: Field goal
6 Q2 8:01 The Texans converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +7% HOU HOU: Touchdown
7 Q2 6:29 Offensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Jayden Higgins), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 1 flag in 110 snaps before, position avg 1 per 403 +8% BAL BAL: Punt
8 Q2 5:40 The Texans converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +6% HOU HOU: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Lamar Jackson (BAL QB), out, replaced by c.rush · 8.8 pts
  • Marlon Humphrey (BAL CB), out · 1.2 pts
  • Ronnie Stanley (BAL T), out · 1.1 pts
  • Kyle Hamilton (BAL S), out · 0.8 pts
  • Kyle Hamilton (BAL SS), out · 0.8 pts
  • Roquan Smith (BAL LB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Nnamdi Madubuike (BAL DL), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Nnamdi Madubuike (BAL DT), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Chidobe Awuzie (BAL CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Ar'Darius Washington (BAL FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Joe Mixon (HOU RB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Kurt Hinish (HOU DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Cade Stover (HOU TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texans 100% · Ravens 0%

Final margin
Texans by 34
Luck in points
21.1 for the Texans
Luck-adjusted margin
Texans by 12.9
Replay with same day's form
Texans 65% · Ravens 35% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2025 games · Texans · Ravens

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