Week 5 2025 · October 2, 2025
49ers at Rams, Week 5 2025: who deserved to win?
The 49ers beat the Rams 26–23, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the 49ers win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 25 points of win probability to the 49ers.
Before kickoff the Rams were 74% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (QOT, 3:41 left): the Rams were stopped on 4th & 1, worth 78 points of win probability to the 49ers.
Final (OT)
 San Francisco 49ers | 26 |
|---|---|
 Los Angeles Rams | 23 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +52 49ers lucky · −52 Rams
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. 49ers win 5, Rams win 5.
- 1 SF 44 LA 20
- 2 SF 41 LA 27
- 3 SF 27 LA 17
- 4 SF 31 LA 26
- 5 SF 40 LA 38
- 6 SF 23 LA 26
- 7 SF 26 LA 31
- 8 SF 16 LA 23
- 9 SF 26 LA 38
- 10 SF 16 LA 38
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
49ers win 48% of them, Rams 52%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: 49ers by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| 49ers by 17+ | 9.8% |
| 49ers by 9–16 | 14.9% |
| 49ers by 1–8 | 21.6% |
| Level after regulation | 5.4% |
| Rams by 1–8 | 23.4% |
| Rams by 9–16 | 13.9% |
| Rams by 17+ | 10.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- E. Pineiro, 37 yds made · 93% expected
- J. Karty, 53 yds missed · 72% expected
- E. Pineiro, 20 yds made · 100% expected
- E. Pineiro, 59 yds made · 64% expected
- J. Karty, 48 yds made · 79% expected
- E. Pineiro, 41 yds made · 88% expected
- Extra point missed · 95% expected
Penalties: 49ers 8 for 44 yards, Rams 5 for 36 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:43 | False Start on the 49ers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% LA +0.7 pts |
| Q1 12:50 | Offensive Holding on the 49ers, 10 yards | +3% LA +0.7 pts |
| Q1 6:30 | Roughing the Passer on the Rams (Josaiah Stewart), 15 yards | +5% SF +1.8 pts |
| Q2 6:11 | False Start on the Rams, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% SF +0.7 pts |
| Q2 5:31 | Defensive Holding on the 49ers (Deommodore Lenoir), 5 yards | +1% LA +0.7 pts |
| Q3 12:04 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Rams (Darious Williams), 6 yards | +3% SF +2.8 pts |
| Q3 3:40 | False Start on the 49ers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LA +0.8 pts |
| Q4 12:01 | Defensive Holding on the 49ers (Deommodore Lenoir), 5 yards | 0% LA +0.3 pts |
| Q4 3:48 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the 49ers, 5 yards | +6% LA +0.7 pts |
| Q4 2:01 | Defensive Holding on the 49ers (Deommodore Lenoir), 5 yards | 0% SF +0.5 pts |
| Q4 1:13 | Illegal Use of Hands on the 49ers (Mykel Williams), 4 yards | +4% LA +0.8 pts |
| Q4 0:53 | Offensive Holding on the Rams (Tre Brown), 10 yards | +14% SF +0.6 pts |
| QOT 10:00 | Kickoff Short of Landing Zone on the Rams (Joshua Karty), 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% SF 0.0 pts |
49ers penalties, every game · Rams penalties, every game · All teams, 2025
When it happened
Rams’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 87%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q4 5:14 | The 49ers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +9% SF | SF: Field goal |
| 2 | Q4 2:57 | E. Pineiro made 59-yard field goalKicks · 64% expected for him, 30 of 37 from 45+ before | +19% SF | SF: Punt |
| 3 | Q4 1:07 | The Rams fumbled and the 49ers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +29% SF | LA: Field goal |
| 4 | Q4 0:53 | Offensive Holding on the Rams (Tre Brown), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 15 flags in 1360 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 | +14% SF | SF: End of game |
| 5 | Q4 0:25 | The Rams converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected | +12% LA | LA: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 0:06 | J. Karty made 48-yard field goalKicks · 79% expected for him, 11 of 14 from 45+ before | +18% LA | LA: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | QOT 5:55 | E. Pineiro made 41-yard field goalKicks · 88% expected for him | +30% LA | – |
| 8 | QOT 3:41 | The game turned hereThe Rams were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected | +78% SF | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Rob Havenstein (LA T), out · 0.9 pts
- Rob Havenstein (LA OL), out · 0.6 pts
- Tyler Higbee (LA TE), out · 0.5 pts
- Ahkello Witherspoon (LA CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Beaux Limmer (LA C), out · 0.3 pts
- Brock Purdy (SF QB), out, replaced by m.jones · 8.1 pts
- George Kittle (SF TE), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
- Nick Bosa (SF DE), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
- Nick Bosa (SF DL), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
- Ricky Pearsall (SF WR), out · 0.6 pts
- Jauan Jennings (SF WR), out · 0.5 pts
- Malik Mustapha (SF FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Patrick Taylor (SF RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Ben Bartch (SF OL), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
49ers 6% · Rams 94%
- Final margin
- 49ers by 3
- Luck in points
- 4.0 for the 49ers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Rams by 1.0
- Replay with same day's form
- 49ers 48% · Rams 52% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2025 games · 
49ers · 
Rams
More from Week 5 2025
- Vikings vs Browns MIN 21–17 · replay 68% for the winner
- Cowboys at Jets DAL 37–22 · replay 92% for the winner
- Broncos at Eagles DEN 21–17 · replay 90% for the winner
- Texans at Ravens HOU 44–10 · replay 65% for the winner
- Raiders at Colts IND 40–6 · replay 72% for the winner
- Dolphins at Panthers CAR 27–24 · replay 79% for the winner
- Giants at Saints NO 26–14 · replay 76% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Seahawks TB 38–35 · replay 34% for the winner
- Titans at Cardinals TEN 22–21 · replay 47% for the winner
- Lions at Bengals DET 37–24 · replay 96% for the winner
- Commanders at Chargers WAS 27–10 · replay 82% for the winner
- Patriots at Bills NE 23–20 · replay 38% for the winner
- Chiefs at Jaguars JAX 31–28 · replay 26% for the winner