luckadjusted

2025 NFL season · October 2, 2025–October 6

Week 5 2025: who deserved to win

5 of 14 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Jaguars beat the Chiefs 31–28 in a game they win 26% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 5 2025 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 4 of 9 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
49ers 26–23 @ Rams 26% 48% Coin flip
Titans 22–21 @ Cardinals 29% 47% Coin flip
Patriots 23–20 @ Bills 29% 38% Lucky
Jaguars 31–28 vs Chiefs 40% 26% Lucky
Broncos 21–17 @ Eagles 40% 90% Deserved
Buccaneers 38–35 @ Seahawks 40% 34% Lucky
Commanders 27–10 @ Chargers 43% 82% Deserved
Cowboys 37–22 @ Jets 46% 92% Deserved
Panthers 27–24 vs Dolphins 46% 79% Deserved

Week 5 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Jaguars W 31–28 vs Chiefs 26% +74
2 Buccaneers W 38–35 @ Seahawks 34% +66
3 Patriots W 23–20 @ Bills 38% +62
4 Titans W 22–21 @ Cardinals 47% +53
5 49ers W 26–23 @ Rams 48% +52
6 Texans W 44–10 @ Ravens 65% +35
7 Vikings W 21–17 @ Browns 68% +32
8 Colts W 40–6 vs Raiders 72% +28
9 Saints W 26–14 vs Giants 76% +24
10 Panthers W 27–24 vs Dolphins 79% +21
11 Commanders W 27–10 @ Chargers 82% +18
12 Broncos W 21–17 @ Eagles 90% +10
13 Cowboys W 37–22 @ Jets 92% +8
14 Lions W 37–24 @ Bengals 96% +4
15 Bengals L 24–37 vs Lions 4% −4
16 Jets L 22–37 vs Cowboys 8% −8
17 Eagles L 17–21 vs Broncos 10% −10
18 Chargers L 10–27 vs Commanders 18% −18
19 Dolphins L 24–27 @ Panthers 21% −21
20 Giants L 14–26 @ Saints 24% −24
21 Raiders L 6–40 @ Colts 28% −28
22 Browns L 17–21 vs Vikings 32% −32
23 Ravens L 10–44 vs Texans 35% −35
24 Rams L 23–26 vs 49ers 52% −52
25 Cardinals L 21–22 vs Titans 53% −53
26 Bills L 20–23 vs Patriots 62% −62
27 Seahawks L 35–38 vs Buccaneers 66% −66
28 Chiefs L 28–31 @ Jaguars 74% −74