luckadjusted

2025 season · final

Miami Dolphins, 2025: game by game

The Dolphins went 7–10 in 2025; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 6.7 wins. Luck added 0.3: the 15th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 4–3.

Every game

How often the Dolphins win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 @ Colts L 8–33 6% −6
Week 2 vs Patriots L 27–33 72% −72
Week 3 @ Bills L 21–31 12% −12
Week 4 vs Jets W 27–21 31% +69
Week 5 @ Panthers L 24–27 21% −21
Week 6 vs Chargers L 27–29 47% −47
Week 7 @ Browns L 6–31 24% −24
Week 8 @ Falcons W 34–10 79% +21
Week 9 vs Ravens L 6–28 10% −10
Week 10 vs Bills W 30–13 55% +45
Week 11 vs Commanders W 16–13 53% +47
Week 13 vs Saints W 21–17 70% +30
Week 14 @ Jets W 34–10 97% +3
Week 15 @ Steelers L 15–28 39% −39
Week 16 vs Bengals L 21–45 9% −9
Week 17 vs Buccaneers W 20–17 48% +52
Week 18 @ Patriots L 10–38 0% 0

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Dolphins’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

KindWinsPoints
Kicks+0.69+12.2
Fumble bounces+0.25+12.6
Rest+0.06+2.2
Injuries−0.21−11.5
3rd & 4th downs−0.29−5.7
Drops−0.46−10.8
Judgment calls−0.96−15.7