luckadjusted

Week 17 2025 · December 28, 2025

Buccaneers at Dolphins, Week 17 2025: who deserved to win?

The Dolphins beat the Buccaneers 20–17, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Dolphins win 5 of 10.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 4:37 left): the Dolphins converted 3rd & 8, worth 16 points of win probability to the Dolphins.

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17
Miami Dolphins 20

December 28, 2025 · Hard Rock Stadium · Closing line: Buccaneers −5.5

Luck index +52 Dolphins lucky · −52 Buccaneers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Buccaneers win 5, Dolphins win 5.

  1. 1 TB 34 MIA 13
  2. 2 TB 28 MIA 14
  3. 3 TB 27 MIA 17
  4. 4 TB 31 MIA 25
  5. 5 TB 31 MIA 29
  6. 6 TB 14 MIA 16
  7. 7 TB 10 MIA 14
  8. 8 TB 14 MIA 23
  9. 9 TB 3 MIA 17
  10. 10 TB 13 MIA 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Buccaneers win 52% of them, Dolphins 48%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Dolphins by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Buccaneers by 17+10.7%
Buccaneers by 9–1615.5%
Buccaneers by 1–821.9%
Level after regulation5.7%
Dolphins by 1–821.3%
Dolphins by 9–1614.7%
Dolphins by 17+10.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +9.1 points to the Buccaneers: the final margin was Dolphins by 3, without the luck Dolphins by 12.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Patterson, 29 yds made · 97% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 55 yds blocked · 70% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 33 yds made · 96% expected
  • R. Patterson, 31 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Buccaneers 5 for 45 yards, Dolphins 10 for 77 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:23 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins (Cedrick Wilson Jr.), 10 yards, wiping out the play +11% TB +3.8 pts
Q1 4:37 False Start on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% TB +0.7 pts
Q1 4:29 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers (Chris Braswell), 10 yards +2% MIA +0.7 pts
Q1 2:08 Illegal Contact on the Dolphins (Jack Jones), 5 yards, wiping out the play +2% MIA +0.2 pts
Q2 14:15 Delay of Game on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% MIA +0.9 pts
Q2 6:13 Illegal Blindside Block on the Dolphins (Jack Jones), 15 yards +5% TB +1.2 pts
Q2 1:57 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% TB +1.9 pts
Q2 1:36 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% MIA +1.3 pts
Q2 0:49 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers (Cade Otton), 10 yards +2% MIA +1.0 pts
Q2 0:16 Delay of Game on the Dolphins (Quinn Ewers), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TB +0.5 pts
Q3 13:25 False Start on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TB +0.6 pts
Q3 0:46 False Start on the Dolphins (Julian Hill), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TB +0.5 pts
Q4 14:15 Offensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Mike Evans), 10 yards +2% MIA +0.7 pts
Q4 12:37 False Start on the Dolphins, 2 yards · pre-snap +1% TB +0.5 pts
Q4 0:59 Defensive Pass Interference on the Dolphins (Rasul Douglas), 15 yards +2% TB +1.2 pts

Buccaneers penalties, every game · Dolphins penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Dolphins’ chance of winning

As low as 31% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Dolphins were ahead in it, below while the Buccaneers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:23 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins (Cedrick Wilson Jr.), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 6 flags in 2628 snaps before, position avg 1 per 403 +11% TB TB: Touchdown
2 Q1 10:22 The Buccaneers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +6% TB TB: Touchdown
3 Q1 8:19 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +8% TB TB: Touchdown
4 Q1 5:31 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +6% TB TB: Touchdown
5 Q1 4:37 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedFalse Start on the Dolphins, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +16% MIA MIA: Touchdown
6 Q2 9:02 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +8% TB MIA: Field goal
7 Q2 1:46 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +9% MIA MIA: Touchdown
8 Q2 0:27 C. McLaughlin had a 55-yard field goal blockedKicks · 70% expected for him, 64 of 82 from 45+ before +6% MIA TB: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tua Tagovailoa (MIA QB), out, replaced by q.ewers · 7.4 pts
  • Minkah Fitzpatrick (MIA S), out · 0.9 pts
  • Aaron Brewer (MIA OL), out · 0.4 pts
  • Julius Brents (MIA CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Tristan Wirfs (TB T), out · 1.6 pts
  • Zyon McCollum (TB CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Sterling Shepard (TB WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Ben Bredeson (TB G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Anthony Nelson (TB LB), out · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Buccaneers 20% · Dolphins 80%

Final margin
Dolphins by 3
Luck in points
9.1 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Dolphins by 12.1
Replay with same day's form
Buccaneers 52% · Dolphins 48% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2025 games · Buccaneers · Dolphins

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