Week 17 2025 · December 25, 2025
Cowboys at Commanders, Week 17 2025: who deserved to win?
The Cowboys beat the Commanders 30–23, but the Commanders played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 15 points of win probability to the Cowboys.
The Cowboys won on an off day: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Commanders they would win 71% of the time; with this day’s form, 30%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Cowboys were 74% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 13:36 left): B. Aubrey missed 58-yard field goal, worth 8 points of win probability to the Commanders.
Final
 Dallas Cowboys | 30 |
|---|---|
 Washington Commanders | 23 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +70 Cowboys very lucky · −70 Commanders
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Cowboys win 3, Commanders win 7.
- 1 DAL 30 WAS 17
- 2 DAL 37 WAS 31
- 3 DAL 23 WAS 21
- 4 DAL 18 WAS 20
- 5 DAL 33 WAS 37
- 6 DAL 24 WAS 31
- 7 DAL 20 WAS 30
- 8 DAL 14 WAS 27
- 9 DAL 27 WAS 44
- 10 DAL 10 WAS 34
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
The Cowboys won on an off day
They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Commanders they would win 71% of the time; with this day’s form, 30%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
41 points apart for the Cowboys: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys offenseEPA per play gained | +0.24 | +0.14 | better by 0.10 |
| Cowboys defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.20 | +0.20 | better by 0.01 |
| Commanders offenseEPA per play gained | +0.20 | +0.13 | better by 0.07 |
| Commanders defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.24 | +0.14 | worse by 0.10 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Cowboys win 30% of them, Commanders 70%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Cowboys by 17+ | 2.5% |
| Cowboys by 9–16 | 6.9% |
| Cowboys by 1–8 | 16.1% |
| Level after regulation | 4.8% |
| Commanders by 1–8 | 28.8% |
| Commanders by 9–16 | 21.1% |
| Commanders by 17+ | 19.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- J. Moody, 29 yds made · 95% expected
- B. Aubrey, 42 yds made · 86% expected
- B. Aubrey, 52 yds made · 77% expected
- J. Moody, 23 yds made · 97% expected
- B. Aubrey, 58 yds missed · 67% expected
- B. Aubrey, 51 yds made · 78% expected
- J. Moody, 51 yds made · 65% expected
Penalties: Cowboys 11 for 89 yards, Commanders 10 for 71 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:23 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (Noah Igbinoghene), 9 yards | +4% DAL +1.5 pts |
| Q1 4:10 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Cowboys, 15 yards | +3% WAS +1.4 pts |
| Q1 3:13 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (Jonathan Jones), 7 yards | +2% DAL +1.2 pts |
| Q2 12:16 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Commanders (Jeremy Reaves), 5 yards | +2% DAL +1.7 pts |
| Q2 10:37 | Illegal Formation on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% DAL +0.6 pts |
| Q2 7:00 | Kickoff Short of Landing Zone on the Cowboys (Brandon Aubrey), 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% WAS 0.0 pts |
| Q2 6:14 | Horse Collar Tackle on the Cowboys (Trevon Diggs), 15 yards | +3% WAS +1.3 pts |
| Q2 4:43 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Reddy Steward), 4 yards | +4% WAS +1.3 pts |
| Q2 2:36 | False Start on the Cowboys (Luke Schoonmaker), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% WAS +0.3 pts |
| Q2 0:04 | False Start on the Commanders (Deebo Samuel), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WAS +0.2 pts |
| Q3 10:24 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (George Pickens), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +4% WAS +1.4 pts |
| Q3 9:53 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Commanders (Tyler Owens), 10 yards | +2% DAL +0.7 pts |
| Q3 9:53 | False Start on the Cowboys (Markquese Bell), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% WAS +0.1 pts |
| Q3 9:34 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Cowboys (Marist Liufau), 10 yards | +3% WAS +0.7 pts |
| Q3 6:54 | False Start on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% WAS +0.6 pts |
| Q3 5:58 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Commanders (Frankie Luvu), 15 yards | +5% DAL +2.2 pts |
| Q3 4:36 | False Start on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% DAL +0.5 pts |
| Q3 2:24 | Face Mask on the Cowboys (Shavon Revel), 15 yards | +6% WAS +1.6 pts |
| Q4 11:38 | False Start on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% DAL +0.6 pts |
| Q4 11:32 | Illegal Shift on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WAS +1.0 pts |
| Q4 5:51 | Defensive Holding on the Commanders (Jer'Zhan Newton), 5 yards | +2% DAL +0.8 pts |
Cowboys penalties, every game · Commanders penalties, every game · All teams, 2025
When it happened
Commanders’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 60%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:08 | The Cowboys converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected | +8% DAL | DAL: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 11:03 | The Cowboys converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +6% DAL | DAL: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 5:29 | The Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +7% DAL | WAS: Field goal |
| 4 | Q1 1:28 | The Cowboys converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected | +8% DAL | DAL: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 7:11 | The Cowboys converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +8% DAL | DAL: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q3 7:37 | The Cowboys converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +8% DAL | DAL: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 13:36 | B. Aubrey missed 58-yard field goalKicks · 67% expected for him, 48 of 55 from 45+ before | +8% WAS | DAL: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 12:19 | The Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected | +7% DAL | WAS: Punt |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Marcus Mariota (WAS QB), out, replaced by j.johnson · 3.2 pts
- Laremy Tunsil (WAS T), out · 1.0 pts
- Marshon Lattimore (WAS CB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
- Zach Ertz (WAS TE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
- Daron Payne (WAS DT), out · 0.4 pts
- Trey Amos (WAS CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- DaRon Bland (DAL CB), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
- Tyler Guyton (DAL T), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- DeMarvion Overshown (DAL LB), out · 0.1 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Cowboys 80% · Commanders 20%
- Final margin
- Cowboys by 7
- Luck in points
- 6.1 for the Cowboys
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Cowboys by 0.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Cowboys 30% · Commanders 70% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2025 games · 
Cowboys · 
Commanders
More from Week 17 2025
- Lions at Vikings MIN 23–10 · replay 51% for the winner
- Broncos at Chiefs DEN 20–13 · replay 74% for the winner
- Texans at Chargers HOU 20–16 · replay 65% for the winner
- Ravens at Packers BAL 41–24 · replay 33% for the winner
- Cardinals at Bengals CIN 37–14 · replay 96% for the winner
- Jaguars at Colts JAX 23–17 · replay 41% for the winner
- Patriots at Jets NE 42–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Saints at Titans NO 34–26 · replay 95% for the winner
- Steelers at Browns CLE 13–6 · replay 52% for the winner
- Seahawks at Panthers SEA 27–10 · replay 64% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Dolphins MIA 20–17 · replay 48% for the winner
- Giants at Raiders NYG 34–10 · replay 90% for the winner
- Eagles at Bills PHI 13–12 · replay 16% for the winner
- Bears at 49ers SF 42–38 · replay 86% for the winner
- Rams at Falcons ATL 27–24 · replay 36% for the winner