luckadjusted

2025 season · final

Dallas Cowboys, 2025: game by game

The Cowboys went 7–9–1 in 2025; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 8.6 wins. Luck cost them 1.1: the 13th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 4–3–1.

Every game

How often the Cowboys win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 @ Eagles L 20–24 33% −33
Week 2 vs Giants W 40–37 16% +85
Week 3 @ Bears L 14–31 50% −50
Week 4 vs Packers T 40–40 46% +4
Week 5 @ Jets W 37–22 92% +8
Week 6 @ Panthers L 27–30 16% −16
Week 7 vs Commanders W 44–22 60% +40
Week 8 @ Broncos L 24–44 10% −10
Week 9 vs Cardinals L 17–27 39% −39
Week 11 @ Raiders W 33–16 94% +6
Week 12 vs Eagles W 24–21 89% +11
Week 13 vs Chiefs W 31–28 61% +39
Week 14 @ Lions L 30–44 35% −35
Week 15 vs Vikings L 26–34 71% −71
Week 16 vs Chargers L 17–34 34% −34
Week 17 @ Commanders W 30–23 30% +70
Week 18 @ Giants L 17–34 82% −82

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Cowboys’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

KindWinsPoints
Judgment calls+0.76+18.4
Fumble bounces+0.28+4.7
Injuries+0.06+3.0
Rest+0.03+1.0
Kicks−0.07−11.9
Drops−0.32−6.0
3rd & 4th downs−0.34−6.0