luckadjusted

2026 season · in progress

Dallas Cowboys, 2026: game by game

The Cowboys went 1–1 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 1.6 wins. Luck cost them 0.6: the 4th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 0–1.

Every game

How often the Cowboys win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 @ Giants L 20–28 85% −85
Week 2 vs Commanders W 37–20 79% +21

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Cowboys’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

KindWinsPoints
Judgment calls+0.06+1.4
Fumble bounces−0.05−4.7
Drops−0.06−2.6
3rd & 4th downs−0.06−2.0
Kicks−0.07+3.7