luckadjusted

Week 15 2025 · December 14, 2025

Vikings at Cowboys, Week 15 2025: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Cowboys 34–26, but the Cowboys played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 27 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 66% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 12:24 left): B. Aubrey missed 59-yard field goal, worth 18 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Final

Minnesota Vikings 34
Dallas Cowboys 26

December 14, 2025 · AT&T Stadium · Closing line: Cowboys −5.5

Luck index +71 Vikings very lucky · −71 Cowboys

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Vikings win 3, Cowboys win 7.

  1. 1 MIN 47 DAL 31
  2. 2 MIN 33 DAL 26
  3. 3 MIN 34 DAL 31
  4. 4 MIN 27 DAL 29
  5. 5 MIN 20 DAL 24
  6. 6 MIN 24 DAL 31
  7. 7 MIN 20 DAL 31
  8. 8 MIN 20 DAL 34
  9. 9 MIN 22 DAL 41
  10. 10 MIN 6 DAL 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Vikings win 29% of them, Cowboys 71%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Vikings by 17+4.5%
Vikings by 9–167.3%
Vikings by 1–815.0%
Level after regulation4.0%
Cowboys by 1–824.9%
Cowboys by 9–1620.7%
Cowboys by 17+23.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +9.0 points to the Vikings: the final margin was Vikings by 8, without the luck Cowboys by 1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Aubrey, 51 yds missed · 83% expected
  • W. Reichard, 29 yds made · 98% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 37 yds made · 94% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 26 yds made · 100% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 41 yds made · 90% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 59 yds missed · 71% expected
  • W. Reichard, 53 yds made · 72% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 41 yds made · 90% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Vikings 3 for 17 yards, Cowboys 7 for 58 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 3:08 Horse Collar Tackle on the Cowboys (Reddy Steward), 15 yards +4% MIN +1.8 pts
Q1 1:12 Face Mask on the Vikings (Levi Drake Rodriguez), 12 yards +2% DAL +0.9 pts
Q2 10:31 Illegal Formation on the Vikings, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +6% DAL +2.2 pts
Q2 3:07 Unnecessary Roughness on the Cowboys (Caelen Carson), 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% DAL +0.1 pts
Q2 1:48 Kickoff Out of Bounds on the Vikings (Will Reichard), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% DAL 0.0 pts
Q3 6:08 False Start on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% MIN +0.9 pts
Q3 5:04 Delay of Game on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% MIN +0.5 pts
Q3 1:23 Illegal Contact on the Cowboys (Shavon Revel), 3 yards +4% MIN +0.5 pts
Q4 9:12 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys (C.J. Goodwin), 10 yards +3% MIN +0.7 pts
Q4 6:30 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the play +10% MIN +2.2 pts

Vikings penalties, every game · Cowboys penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Cowboys’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 79%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cowboys were ahead in it, below while the Vikings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:09 The Vikings were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +9% DAL MIN: Punt
2 Q2 12:08 The Vikings converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +12% MIN MIN: Touchdown
3 Q2 9:34 The Vikings converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 66% expected +11% MIN MIN: Touchdown
4 Q2 8:00 The Cowboys converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +11% DAL DAL: Missed field goal
5 Q3 2:49 The Vikings converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +13% MIN MIN: Touchdown
6 Q4 13:06 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +9% MIN DAL: Missed field goal
7 Q4 12:24 The game turned hereB. Aubrey missed 59-yard field goalKicks · 71% expected for him, 47 of 53 from 45+ before +18% MIN DAL: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 6:30 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +10% MIN MIN: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tyler Guyton (DAL T), out · 0.5 pts
  • Juanyeh Thomas (DAL S), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Carson Wentz (MIN QB), out (IR), replaced by j.mccarthy · 2.6 pts
  • Christian Darrisaw (MIN T), out · 0.8 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Vikings 25% · Cowboys 75%

Final margin
Vikings by 8
Luck in points
9.0 for the Vikings
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 1.0
Replay with same day's form
Vikings 29% · Cowboys 71% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2025 games · Vikings · Cowboys

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