Week 15 2025 · December 14, 2025
Packers at Broncos, Week 15 2025: who deserved to win?
The Broncos stole one. They beat the Packers 34–26, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Packers win 9 of 10. Luck ran their way: drops alone were worth 11 points of win probability to the Broncos.
The Broncos won on an off day: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Packers they would win 52% of the time; with this day’s form, 8%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Packers were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 12:26 left): the Packers converted 3rd & 4, worth 16 points of win probability to the Packers.
Final
 Green Bay Packers | 26 |
|---|---|
 Denver Broncos | 34 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +92 Broncos very lucky · −92 Packers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Packers win 9, Broncos win 1.
- 1 GB 41 DEN 7
- 2 GB 32 DEN 6
- 3 GB 29 DEN 7
- 4 GB 25 DEN 6
- 5 GB 26 DEN 10
- 6 GB 39 DEN 27
- 7 GB 26 DEN 16
- 8 GB 34 DEN 28
- 9 GB 19 DEN 17
- 10 GB 21 DEN 28
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
The Broncos won on an off day
Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Packers they would win 52% of the time; with this day’s form, 8%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
44 points apart for the Broncos: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Packers offenseEPA per play gained | +0.16 | +0.19 | worse by 0.03 |
| Packers defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.35 | +0.07 | worse by 0.28 |
| Broncos offenseEPA per play gained | +0.35 | +0.10 | better by 0.25 |
| Broncos defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.16 | +0.01 | worse by 0.15 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Packers win 92% of them, Broncos 8%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Broncos by 8.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Packers by 17+ | 56.6% |
| Packers by 9–16 | 20.2% |
| Packers by 1–8 | 15.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.7% |
| Broncos by 1–8 | 4.8% |
| Broncos by 9–16 | 2.1% |
| Broncos by 17+ | 0.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- B. McManus, 53 yds made · 69% expected
- B. McManus, 26 yds made · 98% expected
- B. McManus, 35 yds made · 93% expected
- B. McManus, 37 yds made · 92% expected
Penalties: Packers 10 for 72 yards, Broncos 6 for 60 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 9:01 | False Start on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% DEN +0.6 pts |
| Q1 5:07 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Packers (Kingsley Enagbare), 3 yards | +1% DEN +0.2 pts |
| Q1 1:04 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Packers, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +2% DEN +1.3 pts |
| Q2 14:06 | Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +5% GB +1.7 pts |
| Q2 13:37 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Packers (Javon Bullard), 15 yards | +4% DEN +1.7 pts |
| Q2 11:17 | False Start on the Broncos (Tyler Badie), 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% GB +0.5 pts |
| Q2 8:19 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Packers (Karl Brooks), 15 yards | +5% DEN +1.6 pts |
| Q2 8:19 | Kickoff Out of Bounds on the Broncos (Wil Lutz), 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% GB 0.0 pts |
| Q2 4:53 | Illegal Shift on the Packers (John FitzPatrick), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +9% DEN +2.3 pts |
| Q2 1:30 | Roughing the Passer on the Broncos (Zach Allen), 15 yards | +7% GB +1.9 pts |
| Q3 14:12 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos (Riley Moss), 25 yards | +8% GB +2.4 pts |
| Q3 8:16 | False Start on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% DEN +0.6 pts |
| Q3 5:00 | Offensive Holding on the Packers (Isaiah McDuffie), 10 yards | +2% DEN +0.9 pts |
| Q3 0:32 | False Start on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% GB +0.8 pts |
| Q4 7:37 | Defensive Offside on the Packers (Kingsley Enagbare), 4 yards · pre-snap | +1% DEN +0.8 pts |
| Q4 1:03 | False Start on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% GB +0.2 pts |
Packers penalties, every game · Broncos penalties, every game · All teams, 2025
When it happened
Broncos’ chance of winning
As low as 19% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:46 | The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expectedThe Broncos fumbled and the Packers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +16% GB | DEN: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 8:26 | The Broncos converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected | +12% DEN | DEN: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 7:30 | The Packers converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected | +11% GB | GB: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 4:35 | The Packers converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 22% expected | +11% GB | GB: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 7:17 | The Packers converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +13% GB | GB: Punt |
| 6 | Q3 2:42 | The Broncos got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 52% expected to stay out of the defense's hands | +10% DEN | DEN: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 12:26 | The Packers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +16% GB | GB: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 9:03 | The Broncos converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected | +14% DEN | DEN: Touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Pat Bryant (DEN WR), out · 0.3 pts
- J.K. Dobbins (DEN RB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
- Tucker Kraft (GB TE), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
- Elgton Jenkins (GB C), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
- Devonte Wyatt (GB DL), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Packers 3% · Broncos 97%
- Final margin
- Broncos by 8
- Luck in points
- 2.4 for the Packers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Broncos by 10.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Packers 92% · Broncos 8% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2025 games · 
Packers · 
Broncos
More from Week 15 2025
- Falcons at Buccaneers ATL 29–28 · replay 20% for the winner
- Cardinals at Texans HOU 40–20 · replay 80% for the winner
- Ravens at Bengals BAL 24–0 · replay 83% for the winner
- Bills at Patriots BUF 35–31 · replay 51% for the winner
- Browns at Bears CHI 31–3 · replay 99% for the winner
- Chargers at Chiefs LAC 16–13 · replay 53% for the winner
- Raiders at Eagles PHI 31–0 · replay 99% for the winner
- Jets at Jaguars JAX 48–20 · replay 97% for the winner
- Commanders at Giants WAS 29–21 · replay 42% for the winner
- Panthers at Saints NO 20–17 · replay 67% for the winner
- Lions at Rams LA 41–34 · replay 84% for the winner
- Colts at Seahawks SEA 18–16 · replay 75% for the winner
- Titans at 49ers SF 37–24 · replay 89% for the winner
- Vikings at Cowboys MIN 34–26 · replay 29% for the winner
- Dolphins at Steelers PIT 28–15 · replay 61% for the winner