2025 season · final
Denver Broncos, 2025: game by game
The Broncos went 14–3 in 2025; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 10.7 wins. Luck added 3.3: the 5th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 11–2.
Playoffs: 1–1, replay wins 0.7.
Every game
How often the Broncos win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Titans | W 20–12 | 94% | +6 |
| Week 2 | @ Colts | L 28–29 | 33% | −33 |
| Week 3 | @ Chargers | L 20–23 | 15% | −15 |
| Week 4 | vs Bengals | W 28–3 | 90% | +10 |
| Week 5 | @ Eagles | W 21–17 | 90% | +10 |
| Week 6 | @ Jets | W 13–11 | 85% | +15 |
| Week 7 | vs Giants | W 33–32 | 52% | +48 |
| Week 8 | vs Cowboys | W 44–24 | 90% | +10 |
| Week 9 | @ Texans | W 18–15 | 73% | +27 |
| Week 10 | vs Raiders | W 10–7 | 51% | +49 |
| Week 11 | vs Chiefs | W 22–19 | 42% | +58 |
| Week 13 | @ Commanders | W 27–26 | 49% | +51 |
| Week 14 | @ Raiders | W 24–17 | 72% | +28 |
| Week 15 | vs Packers | W 34–26 | 8% | +92 |
| Week 16 | vs Jaguars | L 20–34 | 67% | −67 |
| Week 17 | @ Chiefs | W 20–13 | 74% | +26 |
| Week 18 | vs Chargers | W 19–3 | 90% | +10 |
| Divisional round | vs Bills | W 33–30 | 49% | +51 |
| AFC Championship | vs Patriots | L 7–10 | 19% | −19 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Broncos’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.87 | +7.7 |
| Injuries | +0.73 | +36.8 |
| Drops | +0.29 | +9.3 |
| Kicks | −0.02 | −5.2 |
| Rest | −0.03 | −1.0 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.48 | −7.9 |
| Judgment calls | −2.46 | −48.0 |