luckadjusted

Week 1 2025 · September 7, 2025

Titans at Broncos, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?

The Broncos beat the Titans 20–12, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Broncos win 9 of 10. The Titans had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 8 points of win probability to the Titans.

Before kickoff the Broncos were 74% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 10:16 left): the Titans were stopped on 3rd & 24, worth 13 points of win probability to the Broncos.

Final

Tennessee Titans 12
Denver Broncos 20

September 7, 2025 · Empower Field at Mile High · Closing line: Broncos −8.5

Luck index +6 Broncos about even · −6 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Titans win 1, Broncos win 9.

  1. 1 TEN 23 DEN 17
  2. 2 TEN 20 DEN 23
  3. 3 TEN 16 DEN 22
  4. 4 TEN 13 DEN 22
  5. 5 TEN 10 DEN 22
  6. 6 TEN 14 DEN 29
  7. 7 TEN 20 DEN 38
  8. 8 TEN 6 DEN 27
  9. 9 TEN 3 DEN 30
  10. 10 TEN 6 DEN 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Titans win 6% of them, Broncos 94%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Broncos by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Titans by 17+0.2%
Titans by 9–161.2%
Titans by 1–84.5%
Level after regulation0.8%
Broncos by 1–810.6%
Broncos by 9–1620.5%
Broncos by 17+62.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +12.1 points to the Broncos: the final margin was Broncos by 8, without the luck Titans by 4.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Slye, 50 yds made · 69% expected
  • W. Lutz, 39 yds made · 88% expected
  • J. Slye, 33 yds made · 94% expected
  • J. Slye, 42 yds made · 84% expected
  • J. Slye, 35 yds made · 92% expected
  • W. Lutz, 33 yds made · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Titans 13 for 131 yards, Broncos 6 for 45 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:53 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Titans (Jeffery Simmons), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% DEN +0.9 pts
Q1 8:53 Delay of Game on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TEN +0.7 pts
Q1 7:24 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% DEN +2.0 pts
Q1 1:13 Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% TEN +2.8 pts
Q2 13:46 False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% DEN +0.8 pts
Q2 1:41 Illegal Contact on the Titans (Jarvis Brownlee), 5 yards +2% DEN +0.7 pts
Q2 1:38 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Broncos, 5 yards, wiping out the play +4% TEN +1.0 pts
Q2 0:27 Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans (Jarvis Brownlee), 16 yards +2% DEN +1.0 pts
Q3 11:56 Illegal Formation on the Titans (James Williams), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DEN +0.4 pts
Q3 11:12 Face Mask on the Titans (Jarvis Brownlee), 15 yards +7% DEN +1.6 pts
Q3 10:53 Offensive Holding on the Broncos (Trent Sherfield), 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% TEN +1.2 pts
Q3 4:20 Delay of Game on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap +5% TEN +0.4 pts
Q3 2:57 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards +4% DEN +0.9 pts
Q3 2:34 Delay of Game on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DEN +0.5 pts
Q4 15:00 Unnecessary Roughness on the Titans (James Williams), 9 yards +5% DEN +0.6 pts
Q4 7:12 Intentional Grounding on the Titans (Cam Ward), 16 yards +3% DEN +1.5 pts
Q4 3:26 Face Mask on the Titans (Amani Hooker), 15 yards +1% DEN +2.0 pts
Q4 3:13 Offensive Holding on the Broncos (Trent Sherfield), 10 yards +1% TEN +0.7 pts
Q4 2:58 Unnecessary Roughness on the Titans (Jeffery Simmons), 15 yards +2% DEN +1.4 pts

Titans penalties, every game · Broncos penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Broncos’ chance of winning

As low as 40% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Broncos were ahead in it, below while the Titans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:36 The Titans converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +13% TEN TEN: Field goal
2 Q2 3:02 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +12% DEN TEN: Field goal
3 Q3 10:53 Offensive Holding on the Broncos (Trent Sherfield), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 12 flags in 3230 snaps before, position avg 1 per 403 +8% TEN TEN: Punt
4 Q3 3:28 E. Ayomanor dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 2 catchable balls before this +8% DEN TEN: Punt
5 Q3 3:24 The Titans converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +10% TEN TEN: Punt
6 Q4 11:53 The Broncos fumbled and the Titans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% TEN DEN: Touchdown
7 Q4 10:16 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 243rd & 4th downs · 13% expected +13% DEN TEN: Punt
8 Q4 0:55 C. Ridley dropped a catchable passDrops · 11 drops on 165 catchable balls before this +8% DEN TEN: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Will Levis (TEN QB), out (IR), replaced by c.ward · 0.2 pts
  • Tyjae Spears (TEN RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Titans 70% · Broncos 30%

Final margin
Broncos by 8
Luck in points
12.1 for the Broncos
Luck-adjusted margin
Titans by 4.1
Replay with same day's form
Titans 6% · Broncos 94% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · Titans · Broncos

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