luckadjusted

Week 1 2025 · September 7, 2025

Bengals at Browns, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?

The Bengals beat the Browns 17–16, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Bengals win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 28 points of win probability to the Bengals.

Before kickoff the Bengals were 66% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 2:25 left): A. Szmyt missed 36-yard field goal, worth 29 points of win probability to the Bengals. The biggest single swing (Q4, 1:30 left): the Browns were intercepted on a well-placed throw.

Final

Cincinnati Bengals 17
Cleveland Browns 16

September 7, 2025 · FirstEnergy Stadium · Closing line: Bengals −5.5

Luck index +42 Bengals lucky · −42 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bengals win 6, Browns win 4.

  1. 1 CIN 20 CLE 0
  2. 2 CIN 23 CLE 9
  3. 3 CIN 15 CLE 6
  4. 4 CIN 24 CLE 17
  5. 5 CIN 20 CLE 16
  6. 6 CIN 16 CLE 14
  7. 7 CIN 11 CLE 14
  8. 8 CIN 6 CLE 12
  9. 9 CIN 3 CLE 12
  10. 10 CIN 7 CLE 23

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bengals win 58% of them, Browns 42%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bengals by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bengals by 17+10.8%
Bengals by 9–1616.8%
Bengals by 1–830.4%
Level after regulation2.6%
Browns by 1–822.6%
Browns by 9–1612.2%
Browns by 17+4.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.1 points to the Bengals: the final margin was Bengals by 1, without the luck Browns by 0.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • A. Szmyt, 45 yds made · 78% expected
  • E. McPherson, 35 yds made · 93% expected
  • A. Szmyt, 36 yds missed · 91% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bengals 7 for 33 yards, Browns 7 for 53 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:38 Defensive Offside on the Browns (Myles Garrett), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% CIN +0.5 pts
Q1 10:29 Illegal Formation on the Bengals, 4 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +5% CLE +1.6 pts
Q1 3:34 Illegal Contact on the Bengals (Oren Burks), 5 yards 0% CLE +0.5 pts
Q1 2:06 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (Cam Taylor-Britt), 6 yards +4% CLE +1.2 pts
Q1 2:02 Offensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Harold Fannin), 10 yards +4% CIN +1.5 pts
Q1 0:20 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (DJ Turner), 4 yards +4% CLE +1.5 pts
Q2 15:00 Roughing the Passer on the Bengals (Trey Hendrickson), 4 yards +1% CLE +0.6 pts
Q2 5:13 Defensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Greg Newsome II), 15 yards +4% CIN +1.7 pts
Q3 12:51 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards, wiping out the play +9% CIN +1.4 pts
Q3 10:36 Delay of Game on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% CIN +0.8 pts
Q4 2:00 Delay of Game on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap +5% CLE +0.4 pts
Q4 1:20 Encroachment on the Browns (Shelby Harris), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CLE +0.5 pts
Q4 0:30 Delay of Game on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CLE +0.1 pts
Q4 0:08 False Start on the Browns, 3 yards · pre-snap +2% CIN 0.0 pts

Bengals penalties, every game · Browns penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Browns’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 74%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Browns were ahead in it, below while the Bengals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 12:44 The Browns converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +14% CLE CLE: Touchdown
2 Q3 4:59 The Browns were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +17% CIN CLE: Turnover on downs
3 Q3 2:55 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expectedC. Brown dropped a catchable passDrops · 3 drops on 78 catchable balls before this +14% CLE CIN: Field goal
4 Q4 14:21 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expectedH. Fannin dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 4 catchable balls before this +13% CIN CLE: Turnover on downs
5 Q4 14:16 The Browns were stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 37% expectedJ. Jeudy dropped a catchable passDrops · 13 drops on 240 catchable balls before this +17% CIN CLE: Punt
6 Q4 2:25 The game turned hereA. Szmyt missed 36-yard field goalKicks · 91% expected for him +29% CIN CLE: Turnover
7 Q4 1:30 The Browns were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +40% CIN CLE: End of game
8 Q4 0:08 The Browns converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedFalse Start on the Browns, 3 yardsPre-snap flags +20% CIN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Martin Emerson (CLE CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Cordell Volson (CIN G), out (IR) · 0.7 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bengals 49% · Browns 51%

Final margin
Bengals by 1
Luck in points
1.1 for the Bengals
Luck-adjusted margin
Browns by 0.1
Replay with same day's form
Bengals 58% · Browns 42% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · Bengals · Browns

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