luckadjusted

Week 1 2025 · September 7, 2025

Cardinals at Saints, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?

The Cardinals beat the Saints 20–13 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10.

Before kickoff the Cardinals were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 2:11 left): Illegal Contact on the Cardinals (Max Melton), 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 14 points of win probability to the Saints.

Final

Arizona Cardinals 20
New Orleans Saints 13

September 7, 2025 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome · Closing line: Cardinals −6

Luck index +40 Cardinals lucky · −40 Saints

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cardinals win 6, Saints win 4.

  1. 1 ARI 23 NO 0
  2. 2 ARI 24 NO 9
  3. 3 ARI 20 NO 8
  4. 4 ARI 19 NO 10
  5. 5 ARI 12 NO 7
  6. 6 ARI 17 NO 15
  7. 7 ARI 10 NO 12
  8. 8 ARI 20 NO 26
  9. 9 ARI 10 NO 20
  10. 10 ARI 7 NO 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cardinals win 60% of them, Saints 40%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cardinals by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cardinals by 17+11.9%
Cardinals by 9–1618.3%
Cardinals by 1–829.0%
Level after regulation2.5%
Saints by 1–820.2%
Saints by 9–1612.6%
Saints by 17+5.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.7 points to the Cardinals: the final margin was Cardinals by 7, without the luck Cardinals by 3.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Ryland, 42 yds made · 85% expected
  • B. Grupe, 36 yds made · 93% expected
  • C. Ryland, 50 yds made · 71% expected
  • B. Grupe, 37 yds missed · 92% expected
  • C. Ryland, 46 yds blocked · 78% expected
  • B. Grupe, 28 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Cardinals 9 for 54 yards, Saints 13 for 89 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:11 Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Kool-Aid McKinstry), 13 yards +10% ARI +2.8 pts
Q1 8:05 False Start on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NO +0.6 pts
Q1 5:14 Delay of Game on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NO +0.5 pts
Q1 3:39 Illegal Shift on the Saints (Chris Olave), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ARI +0.6 pts
Q1 2:33 Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards +7% ARI +1.3 pts
Q1 2:11 Illegal Contact on the Cardinals (Max Melton), 5 yards, wiping out the play +14% NO +6.0 pts
Q1 0:44 Illegal Shift on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% ARI +0.8 pts
Q2 10:56 Defensive Holding on the Saints (Demario Davis), 2 yards +2% ARI +0.4 pts
Q2 9:07 Offensive Offside on the Saints, 4 yards · pre-snap +4% ARI +1.1 pts
Q2 4:10 Face Mask on the Saints (Jonah Williams), 15 yards +5% ARI +3.5 pts
Q2 3:49 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards +4% NO +1.1 pts
Q2 2:00 Defensive Offside on the Saints (Nathan Shepherd), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ARI +0.5 pts
Q3 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Saints (Chris Rumph), 10 yards +1% ARI +1.1 pts
Q3 7:35 False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ARI +0.5 pts
Q3 5:10 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Cardinals (Darius Robinson), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NO +1.3 pts
Q3 0:23 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Garrett Williams), 7 yards +2% NO +1.2 pts
Q4 14:38 False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ARI +0.6 pts
Q4 13:51 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 3 yards +1% NO +1.1 pts
Q4 9:01 False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ARI +0.8 pts
Q4 5:56 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards 0% NO +0.9 pts
Q4 3:24 Defensive Holding on the Cardinals (Max Melton), 4 yards +1% NO +1.0 pts
Q4 2:46 Illegal Formation on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ARI +0.1 pts

Cardinals penalties, every game · Saints penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Saints’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 69%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Saints were ahead in it, below while the Cardinals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:11 Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Kool-Aid McKinstry), 13 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 713 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +10% ARI ARI: Field goal
2 Q1 2:33 Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yardsJudgment calls +7% ARI ARI: Touchdown
3 Q1 2:11 Illegal Contact on the Cardinals (Max Melton), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 777 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +14% NO NO: Touchdown
4 Q2 8:46 The Saints converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +8% NO NO: Field goal
5 Q2 4:46 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +6% ARI ARI: Touchdown
6 Q2 2:07 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +14% ARI ARI: Touchdown
7 Q3 4:03 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +7% ARI NO: Missed field goal
8 Q4 0:04 The Saints were stopped on 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +8% ARI –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Trevor Penning (NO T), out · 0.5 pts
  • Chase Young (NO DE), out · 0.5 pts
  • Foster Moreau (NO TE), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Taysom Hill (NO TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Nick Saldiveri (NO G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Sean Murphy-Bunting (ARI CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Christian Jones (ARI T), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cardinals 66% · Saints 34%

Final margin
Cardinals by 7
Luck in points
3.7 for the Cardinals
Luck-adjusted margin
Cardinals by 3.3
Replay with same day's form
Cardinals 60% · Saints 40% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · Cardinals · Saints

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