luckadjusted

Week 1 2025 · September 7, 2025

Panthers at Jaguars, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?

The Jaguars beat the Panthers 26–10 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Panthers had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 12 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Before kickoff the Jaguars were 63% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 12:03 left): the Jaguars converted 3rd & 10, worth 11 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Final

Carolina Panthers 10
Jacksonville Jaguars 26

September 7, 2025 · TIAA Bank Stadium · Closing line: Jaguars −4.5

Luck index +34 Jaguars lucky · −34 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 3, Jaguars win 7.

  1. 1 CAR 27 JAX 10
  2. 2 CAR 29 JAX 21
  3. 3 CAR 20 JAX 17
  4. 4 CAR 20 JAX 22
  5. 5 CAR 20 JAX 24
  6. 6 CAR 20 JAX 27
  7. 7 CAR 13 JAX 23
  8. 8 CAR 9 JAX 22
  9. 9 CAR 7 JAX 23
  10. 10 CAR 13 JAX 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 34% of them, Jaguars 66%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jaguars by 16.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 17+3.9%
Panthers by 9–169.2%
Panthers by 1–819.7%
Level after regulation2.1%
Jaguars by 1–827.9%
Jaguars by 9–1621.7%
Jaguars by 17+15.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +13.4 points to the Panthers: the final margin was Jaguars by 16, without the luck Jaguars by 29.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Little, 35 yds made · 94% expected
  • R. Fitzgerald, 48 yds made · 76% expected
  • C. Little, 47 yds made · 81% expected
  • C. Little, 36 yds made · 93% expected
  • C. Little, 28 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Panthers 4 for 35 yards, Jaguars 11 for 93 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:06 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards +4% CAR +1.2 pts
Q1 11:38 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars (Johnny Mundt), 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% CAR +1.8 pts
Q1 9:49 Intentional Grounding on the Jaguars (Trevor Lawrence), 12 yards +3% CAR +1.2 pts
Q2 1:49 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Panthers, 5 yards, wiping out the play +4% JAX +1.8 pts
Q2 1:49 Kickoff Out of Bounds on the Jaguars (Cam Little), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% CAR 0.0 pts
Q2 0:13 Delay of Game on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% JAX +0.5 pts
Q2 0:06 Unnecessary Roughness on the Panthers (Derrick Brown), 15 yards +1% JAX +1.0 pts
Q3 15:00 Kickoff Short of Landing Zone on the Jaguars (Cam Little), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% CAR 0.0 pts
Q3 12:07 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (Jarrian Jones), 26 yards +3% CAR +2.4 pts
Q3 8:59 Offensive Holding on the Panthers (Corey Thornton), 10 yards +2% JAX +0.9 pts
Q3 3:48 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars (Dyami Brown), 10 yards 0% CAR +0.8 pts
Q3 3:24 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards +1% JAX +1.3 pts
Q3 1:56 False Start on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% JAX +0.8 pts
Q4 7:59 False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CAR +0.6 pts
Q4 5:08 Defensive Holding on the Jaguars (Jourdan Lewis), 5 yards, wiping out the play 0% CAR +7.2 pts

Panthers penalties, every game · Jaguars penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Jaguars’ chance of winning

As low as 46% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jaguars were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:56 The Jaguars got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +5% JAX JAX: Field goal
2 Q1 14:28 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +5% CAR JAX: Field goal
3 Q1 13:47 The Jaguars converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +6% JAX JAX: Field goal
4 Q1 12:03 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +11% JAX JAX: Field goal
5 Q1 11:38 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars (Johnny Mundt), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 7 flags in 2573 snaps before, position avg 1 per 278 +8% CAR CAR: Field goal
6 Q1 2:58 The Panthers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +9% CAR CAR: Field goal
7 Q2 14:16 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +7% CAR JAX: Punt
8 Q2 5:29 The Panthers converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +8% CAR CAR: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Montaric Brown (JAX CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Maason Smith (JAX DT), out · 0.2 pts
  • Ikem Ekwonu (CAR T), out · 1.1 pts
  • Jalen Coker (CAR WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 0% · Jaguars 100%

Final margin
Jaguars by 16
Luck in points
13.4 for the Panthers
Luck-adjusted margin
Jaguars by 29.4
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 34% · Jaguars 66% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · Panthers · Jaguars

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