luckadjusted

2025 NFL season · September 4, 2025–September 8

Week 1 2025: who deserved to win

1 of 16 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Steelers beat the Jets 34–32 in a game they win 12% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 1 2025 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 3 of 3 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Chargers 27–21 vs Chiefs 41% 86% Deserved
Raiders 20–13 @ Patriots 43% 90% Deserved
Bills 41–40 vs Ravens 46% 65% Deserved

Week 1 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Steelers W 34–32 @ Jets 12% +88
2 Bengals W 17–16 @ Browns 58% +42
3 Rams W 14–9 vs Texans 58% +42
4 Cardinals W 20–13 @ Saints 60% +40
5 Buccaneers W 23–20 @ Falcons 65% +35
6 Bills W 41–40 vs Ravens 65% +35
7 Jaguars W 26–10 vs Panthers 66% +34
8 Eagles W 24–20 vs Cowboys 67% +33
9 49ers W 17–13 @ Seahawks 68% +32
10 Packers W 27–13 vs Lions 75% +25
11 Chargers W 27–21 vs Chiefs 86% +14
12 Raiders W 20–13 @ Patriots 90% +10
13 Vikings W 27–24 @ Bears 92% +8
14 Broncos W 20–12 vs Titans 94% +6
15 Colts W 33–8 vs Dolphins 94% +6
16 Commanders W 21–6 vs Giants 99% +1
17 Giants L 6–21 @ Commanders 1% −1
18 Dolphins L 8–33 @ Colts 6% −6
19 Titans L 12–20 @ Broncos 6% −6
20 Bears L 24–27 vs Vikings 8% −8
21 Patriots L 13–20 vs Raiders 10% −10
22 Chiefs L 21–27 @ Chargers 14% −14
23 Lions L 13–27 @ Packers 25% −25
24 Seahawks L 13–17 vs 49ers 32% −32
25 Cowboys L 20–24 @ Eagles 33% −33
26 Panthers L 10–26 @ Jaguars 34% −34
27 Ravens L 40–41 @ Bills 35% −35
28 Falcons L 20–23 vs Buccaneers 35% −35
29 Saints L 13–20 vs Cardinals 40% −40
30 Texans L 9–14 @ Rams 42% −42
31 Browns L 16–17 vs Bengals 42% −42
32 Jets L 32–34 vs Steelers 88% −88