2025 season · final

Tennessee Titans, 2025: game by game

The Titans went 3–14 in 2025; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 2.4 wins. Luck added 0.6: the 12th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 2–5.

Every game

How often the Titans win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Broncos	L 12–20	6%	−6
Week 2	vs Rams	L 19–33	4%	−4
Week 3	vs Colts	L 20–41	11%	−11
Week 4	@ Texans	L 0–26	17%	−17
Week 5	@ Cardinals	W 22–21	47%	+53
Week 6	@ Raiders	L 10–20	7%	−7
Week 7	vs Patriots	L 13–31	8%	−8
Week 8	@ Colts	L 14–38	3%	−3
Week 9	vs Chargers	L 20–27	2%	−2
Week 11	vs Texans	L 13–16	10%	−10
Week 12	vs Seahawks	L 24–30	2%	−2
Week 13	vs Jaguars	L 3–25	2%	−2
Week 14	@ Browns	W 31–29	34%	+66
Week 15	@ 49ers	L 24–37	11%	−11
Week 16	vs Chiefs	W 26–9	65%	+35
Week 17	vs Saints	L 26–34	6%	−6
Week 18	@ Jaguars	L 7–41	1%	−1

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 −6 @ DEN

Wk 2 −4 vs LA

Wk 3 −11 vs IND

Wk 4 −17 @ HOU

Wk 5 +53 @ ARI

Wk 6 −7 @ LV

Wk 7 −8 vs NE

Wk 8 −3 @ IND

Wk 9 −2 vs LAC

Wk 11 −10 vs HOU

Wk 12 −2 vs SEA

Wk 13 −2 vs JAX

Wk 14 +66 @ CLE

Wk 15 −11 @ SF

Wk 16 +35 vs KC

Wk 17 −6 vs NO

Wk 18 −1 @ JAX

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Titans’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Kicks	+0.44	−5.1
Injuries	+0.33	+9.7
Fumble bounces	−0.17	−7.9
Judgment calls	−0.43	−15.1
3rd & 4th downs	−0.54	−8.5
Drops	−0.60	−23.6