luckadjusted

Week 3 2025 · September 21, 2025

Colts at Titans, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?

The Colts beat the Titans 41–20, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Colts win 9 of 10. The Titans had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 9 points of win probability to the Titans.

Before kickoff the Colts were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 14:20 left): Return touchdown by the Colts, worth 42 points of win probability to the Colts.

Final

Indianapolis Colts 41
Tennessee Titans 20

September 21, 2025 · Nissan Stadium · Closing line: Colts −6

Luck index +11 Colts about even · −11 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Colts win 9, Titans win 1.

  1. 1 IND 28 TEN 0
  2. 2 IND 23 TEN 0
  3. 3 IND 25 TEN 7
  4. 4 IND 17 TEN 3
  5. 5 IND 21 TEN 10
  6. 6 IND 23 TEN 13
  7. 7 IND 17 TEN 10
  8. 8 IND 17 TEN 13
  9. 9 IND 16 TEN 14
  10. 10 IND 15 TEN 21

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Colts win 89% of them, Titans 11%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Colts by 21.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Colts by 17+40.5%
Colts by 9–1627.3%
Colts by 1–820.3%
Level after regulation1.7%
Titans by 1–87.4%
Titans by 9–162.3%
Titans by 17+0.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.7 points to the Titans: the final margin was Colts by 21, without the luck Colts by 21.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Slye, 57 yds made · 58% expected
  • S. Shrader, 24 yds made · 99% expected
  • J. Slye, 42 yds made · 84% expected
  • J. Slye, 64 yds missed · 49% expected
  • S. Shrader, 51 yds missed · 70% expected
  • J. Slye, 62 yds blocked · 51% expected
  • S. Shrader, 36 yds made · 92% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Colts 4 for 23 yards, Titans 8 for 68 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:04 Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yards +2% TEN +1.3 pts
Q1 1:18 Defensive Holding on the Titans (L'Jarius Sneed), 1 yard +1% IND +0.4 pts
Q2 15:00 Illegal Shift on the Titans, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +5% IND +1.9 pts
Q2 10:50 Illegal Use of Hands on the Titans (Kyzir White), 5 yards +1% IND +0.4 pts
Q2 0:42 Delay of Game on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% IND +1.1 pts
Q3 14:14 Defensive Offside on the Titans (L'Jarius Sneed), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% IND +0.5 pts
Q3 5:38 Defensive Holding on the Colts (Xavien Howard), 3 yards +1% TEN +0.8 pts
Q4 15:00 Defensive Offside on the Colts (Nick Cross), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TEN +0.8 pts
Q4 13:18 Illegal Motion on the Titans (Van Jefferson), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +2% IND +2.4 pts
Q4 12:04 Defensive Holding on the Colts (Charvarius Ward), 5 yards +1% TEN +2.2 pts
Q4 9:30 False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% IND +1.0 pts
Q4 6:45 Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans (Darrell Baker), 37 yards 0% IND +3.3 pts

Colts penalties, every game · Titans penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Titans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Titans were ahead in it, below while the Colts were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:20 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expectedThe Titans threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the ColtsSpecial teams +42% IND TEN: Field goal
2 Q1 12:45 J. Slye made 57-yard field goalKicks · 58% expected for him, 48 of 72 from 45+ before +11% TEN TEN: Punt
3 Q1 10:43 The Colts converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +8% IND IND: Field goal
4 Q1 3:35 The Colts converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +6% IND IND: Touchdown
5 Q2 15:00 Illegal Shift on the Titans, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +5% IND IND: Punt
6 Q2 5:39 J. Slye missed 64-yard field goalKicks · 49% expected for him, 49 of 73 from 45+ before +5% IND TEN: Missed field goal
7 Q2 3:19 S. Shrader missed 51-yard field goalKicks · 70% expected for him, 3 of 3 from 45+ before +6% TEN IND: Field goal
8 Q2 0:42 J. Slye had a 62-yard field goal blockedKicks · 51% expected for him, 49 of 74 from 45+ beforeDelay of Game on the Titans, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +6% IND TEN: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • JC Latham (TEN T), out · 0.7 pts
  • Kevin Zeitler (TEN G), out · 0.4 pts
  • T'Vondre Sweat (TEN NT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Tyjae Spears (TEN RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Will Levis (TEN QB), out (IR), replaced by c.ward · 0.2 pts
  • Jaylon Jones (IND CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Colts 100% · Titans 0%

Final margin
Colts by 21
Luck in points
0.7 for the Titans
Luck-adjusted margin
Colts by 21.7
Replay with same day's form
Colts 89% · Titans 11% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · Colts · Titans

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