Week 3 2025 · September 21, 2025
Packers at Browns, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?
The Browns stole one. They beat the Packers 13–10, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Packers win 8 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 51 points of win probability to the Browns.
Before kickoff the Packers were 74% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 0:27 left): B. McManus had a 43-yard field goal blocked, worth 33 points of win probability to the Browns. The biggest single swing (Q4, 3:18 left): the Packers were stopped on 3rd & 3.
Final
 Green Bay Packers | 10 |
|---|---|
 Cleveland Browns | 13 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +82 Browns very lucky · −82 Packers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Packers win 8, Browns win 2.
- 1 GB 22 CLE 0
- 2 GB 23 CLE 6
- 3 GB 27 CLE 14
- 4 GB 23 CLE 13
- 5 GB 19 CLE 10
- 6 GB 16 CLE 10
- 7 GB 16 CLE 12
- 8 GB 23 CLE 21
- 9 GB 10 CLE 13
- 10 GB 6 CLE 16
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Packers win 82% of them, Browns 18%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Browns by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Packers by 17+ | 29.4% |
| Packers by 9–16 | 21.7% |
| Packers by 1–8 | 30.4% |
| Level after regulation | 1.7% |
| Browns by 1–8 | 10.9% |
| Browns by 9–16 | 4.9% |
| Browns by 17+ | 1.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- B. McManus, 39 yds made · 88% expected
- A. Szmyt, 35 yds made · 92% expected
- B. McManus, 43 yds blocked · 82% expected
- A. Szmyt, 55 yds made · 61% expected
Penalties: Packers 14 for 75 yards, Browns 8 for 90 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 9:14 | Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +5% GB +2.0 pts |
| Q1 0:07 | False Start on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CLE +0.6 pts |
| Q2 10:16 | False Start on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CLE +0.8 pts |
| Q2 9:40 | Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Browns, 6 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +6% GB +1.8 pts |
| Q2 5:45 | Defensive Offside on the Browns (Myles Garrett), 4 yards · pre-snap | +1% GB +0.4 pts |
| Q2 5:00 | False Start on the Packers (Malik Heath), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CLE +0.8 pts |
| Q2 3:18 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Packers (Romeo Doubs), 10 yards | +4% CLE +1.1 pts |
| Q2 0:25 | Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +10% GB +1.5 pts |
| Q3 13:35 | False Start on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% CLE +1.1 pts |
| Q3 10:28 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Packers, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +5% CLE +1.7 pts |
| Q3 1:19 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Browns (Donovan McMillon), 15 yards | +1% GB +1.4 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | Illegal Formation on the Packers (Ty'Ron Hopper), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CLE +0.4 pts |
| Q4 12:53 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Cedric Tillman), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +15% GB +5.2 pts |
| Q4 12:38 | Defensive Offside on the Packers (Micah Parsons), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +3% GB +0.4 pts |
| Q4 6:06 | Defensive Holding on the Packers (Javon Bullard), 5 yards | +6% CLE +1.9 pts |
| Q4 4:49 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Packers (Keisean Nixon), 2 yards | +5% CLE +1.7 pts |
| Q4 4:40 | Chop Block on the Browns, 15 yards | +6% GB +2.4 pts |
| Q4 3:38 | Offensive Holding on the Packers (Lukas Van Ness), 10 yards | +1% CLE +0.6 pts |
| Q4 3:08 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Packers (Evan Williams), 3 yards | +4% CLE +0.7 pts |
| Q4 2:52 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Myles Harden), 20 yards | +10% GB +1.0 pts |
| Q4 1:12 | False Start on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +5% CLE +0.7 pts |
| Q4 0:21 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Packers (Micah Parsons), 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% CLE +0.2 pts |
Packers penalties, every game · Browns penalties, every game · All teams, 2025
When it happened
Browns’ chance of winning
As low as 7% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 0:25 | Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +10% GB | GB: End of half |
| 2 | Q4 12:53 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Cedric Tillman), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 1 flag in 1200 snaps before, position avg 1 per 403 | +15% GB | GB: Punt |
| 3 | Q4 3:18 | The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expectedThe Packers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 46% expected to stay out of the defense's hands | +38% CLE | GB: Missed field goal |
| 4 | Q4 2:52 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Myles Harden), 20 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 166 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 | +10% GB | GB: Missed field goal |
| 5 | Q4 1:12 | The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 19% expectedFalse Start on the Packers, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +10% CLE | GB: Missed field goal |
| 6 | Q4 0:27 | The game turned hereB. McManus had a 43-yard field goal blockedKicks · 82% expected for him | +33% CLE | – |
| 7 | Q4 0:12 | The Browns converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected | +12% CLE | CLE: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 0:02 | A. Szmyt made 55-yard field goalKicks · 61% expected for him, 1 of 1 from 45+ before | +21% CLE | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Jack Conklin (CLE T), out · 1.0 pts
- Martin Emerson (CLE CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Cameron Mitchell (CLE CB), out · 0.2 pts
- Jayden Reed (GB WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Christian Watson (GB WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Packers 24% · Browns 76%
- Final margin
- Browns by 3
- Luck in points
- 4.5 for the Packers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Browns by 7.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Packers 82% · Browns 18% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · 
Packers · 
Browns
More from Week 3 2025
- Dolphins at Bills BUF 31–21 · replay 88% for the winner
- Falcons at Panthers CAR 30–0 · replay 50% for the winner
- Bengals at Vikings MIN 48–10 · replay 98% for the winner
- Texans at Jaguars JAX 17–10 · replay 82% for the winner
- Colts at Titans IND 41–20 · replay 89% for the winner
- Rams at Eagles PHI 33–26 · replay 13% for the winner
- Raiders at Commanders WAS 41–24 · replay 81% for the winner
- Jets at Buccaneers TB 29–27 · replay 63% for the winner
- Steelers at Patriots PIT 21–14 · replay 62% for the winner
- Broncos at Chargers LAC 23–20 · replay 85% for the winner
- Saints at Seahawks SEA 44–13 · replay 90% for the winner
- Cardinals at 49ers SF 16–15 · replay 87% for the winner
- Cowboys at Bears CHI 31–14 · replay 50% for the winner
- Chiefs at Giants KC 22–9 · replay 63% for the winner
- Lions at Ravens DET 38–30 · replay 63% for the winner