luckadjusted

Week 3 2025 · September 21, 2025

Rams at Eagles, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?

The Eagles stole one. They beat the Rams 33–26, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Rams win 9 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 70 points of win probability to the Eagles.

The Eagles won on an off day: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Rams they would win 61% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Eagles were 60% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 0:03 left): J. Karty had a 44-yard field goal blocked, worth 62 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Final

Los Angeles Rams 26
Philadelphia Eagles 33

September 21, 2025 · Lincoln Financial Field · Closing line: Eagles −3.5

Luck index +87 Eagles very lucky · −87 Rams

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Rams win 9, Eagles win 1.

  1. 1 LA 44 PHI 13
  2. 2 LA 34 PHI 10
  3. 3 LA 30 PHI 10
  4. 4 LA 33 PHI 16
  5. 5 LA 23 PHI 10
  6. 6 LA 30 PHI 21
  7. 7 LA 26 PHI 20
  8. 8 LA 37 PHI 34
  9. 9 LA 26 PHI 24
  10. 10 LA 34 PHI 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

The Eagles won on an off day

They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Rams they would win 61% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%.

48 points apart for the Eagles: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Rams offenseEPA per play gained +0.04 +0.10 worse by 0.05
Rams defenseEPA per play allowed +0.10 +0.09 worse by 0.01
Eagles offenseEPA per play gained +0.10 +0.14 worse by 0.04
Eagles defenseEPA per play allowed +0.04 +0.04 worse by 0.00

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Rams win 87% of them, Eagles 13%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Rams by 17+40.0%
Rams by 9–1625.3%
Rams by 1–819.9%
Level after regulation1.6%
Eagles by 1–88.8%
Eagles by 9–163.5%
Eagles by 17+0.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.1 points to the Eagles: the final margin was Eagles by 7, without the luck Eagles by 3.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Karty, 51 yds made · 70% expected
  • J. Karty, 28 yds made · 97% expected
  • J. Karty, 33 yds made · 94% expected
  • J. Karty, 46 yds made · 79% expected
  • J. Karty, 36 yds blocked · 91% expected
  • J. Karty, 44 yds blocked · 80% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Rams 4 for 41 yards, Eagles 5 for 50 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:16 Defensive Pass Interference on the Rams (Quentin Lake), 1 yard 0% PHI +0.1 pts
Q2 13:03 Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Quinyon Mitchell), 17 yards +4% LA +2.8 pts
Q2 9:30 Offensive Holding on the Rams, 10 yards +2% PHI +0.9 pts
Q2 9:15 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Eagles (Jeremiah Trotter Jr.), 8 yards +1% LA +0.7 pts
Q2 3:36 Unnecessary Roughness on the Eagles (A.J. Brown), 6 yards +2% LA +0.6 pts
Q3 12:40 Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards +3% LA +1.7 pts
Q3 7:23 Unnecessary Roughness on the Rams (Kamren Kinchens), 15 yards +1% PHI +1.0 pts
Q3 0:40 Taunting on the Rams (Puka Nacua), 15 yards +1% PHI +1.1 pts
Q4 8:46 Taunting on the Eagles (Jalen Carter), 9 yards +2% LA +0.6 pts

Rams penalties, every game · Eagles penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Eagles’ chance of winning

As low as 8% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Eagles were ahead in it, below while the Rams were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q4 14:13 The Rams were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +10% PHI LA: Missed field goal
2 Q4 12:51 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +9% LA PHI: Turnover on downs
3 Q4 8:32 The Eagles converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +10% PHI PHI: Touchdown
4 Q4 4:54 S. Barkley dropped a catchable passDrops · 15 drops on 178 catchable balls before this +9% LA PHI: Touchdown
5 Q4 4:48 The Eagles converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +20% PHI PHI: Touchdown
6 Q4 1:55 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +11% LA PHI: Touchdown
7 Q4 1:51 The Eagles converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +27% PHI PHI: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:03 The game turned hereJ. Karty had a 44-yard field goal blockedKicks · 80% expected for him +62% PHI –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Ahkello Witherspoon (LA CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Steve Avila (LA G), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Rams 23% · Eagles 77%

Final margin
Eagles by 7
Luck in points
3.1 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 3.9
Replay with same day's form
Rams 87% · Eagles 13% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · Rams · Eagles

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