luckadjusted

Week 3 2025 · September 21, 2025

Steelers at Patriots, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?

The Steelers beat the Patriots 21–14 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10.

Before kickoff the Steelers were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 15:00 left): the Patriots converted 4th & 2, worth 24 points of win probability to the Patriots.

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers 21
New England Patriots 14

September 21, 2025 · Gillette Stadium · Closing line: Steelers −1.5

Luck index +38 Steelers lucky · −38 Patriots

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Steelers win 6, Patriots win 4.

  1. 1 PIT 34 NE 14
  2. 2 PIT 30 NE 16
  3. 3 PIT 27 NE 17
  4. 4 PIT 23 NE 16
  5. 5 PIT 20 NE 16
  6. 6 PIT 24 NE 21
  7. 7 PIT 10 NE 12
  8. 8 PIT 23 NE 28
  9. 9 PIT 13 NE 23
  10. 10 PIT 17 NE 36

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Steelers win 62% of them, Patriots 38%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Steelers by 17+12.3%
Steelers by 9–1617.0%
Steelers by 1–830.2%
Level after regulation3.3%
Patriots by 1–820.3%
Patriots by 9–1611.9%
Patriots by 17+5.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +8.3 points to the Steelers: the final margin was Steelers by 7, without the luck Patriots by 1.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Steelers 8 for 59 yards, Patriots 7 for 54 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:36 Illegal Contact on the Steelers (Payton Wilson), 5 yards +6% NE +2.2 pts
Q1 13:18 Defensive Offside on the Patriots (K'Lavon Chaisson), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% PIT +0.3 pts
Q1 8:32 Defensive Pass Interference on the Patriots (Alex Austin), 1 yard +4% PIT +1.4 pts
Q1 5:21 Offensive Holding on the Steelers (Brandin Echols), 10 yards +1% NE +1.0 pts
Q1 3:51 Defensive Holding on the Patriots (Alex Austin), 5 yards, wiping out the play +10% PIT +3.6 pts
Q1 3:22 Low Block on the Patriots (Marcus Jones), 15 yards +5% PIT +2.2 pts
Q1 2:13 Delay of Game on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NE +0.7 pts
Q2 15:00 Defensive Holding on the Patriots (K'Lavon Chaisson), 5 yards +1% PIT +0.5 pts
Q2 9:09 Defensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Brandin Echols), 16 yards +4% NE +2.2 pts
Q2 2:13 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Patriots, 5 yards, wiping out the play +9% PIT +2.1 pts
Q2 0:22 Encroachment on the Steelers (Keeanu Benton), 3 yards · pre-snap +3% NE +0.6 pts
Q3 13:12 Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 10 yards +4% NE +1.3 pts
Q3 2:49 Illegal Use of Hands on the Steelers (Nick Herbig), 5 yards +3% NE +0.9 pts
Q4 13:30 Defensive Pass Interference on the Patriots (Carlton Davis), 18 yards +10% PIT +1.9 pts
Q4 2:30 False Start on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NE +0.5 pts

Steelers penalties, every game · Patriots penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Patriots’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 67%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Patriots were ahead in it, below while the Steelers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 3:51 Defensive Holding on the Patriots (Alex Austin), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 3 flags in 674 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +10% PIT PIT: Touchdown
2 Q2 0:12 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 49% expectedThe Patriots threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +19% PIT NE: Turnover
3 Q3 13:46 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedThe Steelers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +19% NE PIT: Punt
4 Q4 15:00 The Patriots converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +24% NE NE: Touchdown
5 Q4 13:30 Defensive Pass Interference on the Patriots (Carlton Davis), 18 yardsJudgment calls · 41 flags in 5758 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +10% PIT PIT: Punt
6 Q4 8:28 The Patriots converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +11% NE NE: Turnover
7 Q4 2:20 The Steelers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +22% PIT PIT: Touchdown
8 Q4 1:07 The Patriots were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +10% PIT –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Christian Gonzalez (NE CB), out · 1.0 pts
  • Layden Robinson (NE G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jahlani Tavai (NE LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Joey Porter Jr. (PIT CB), out · 1.0 pts
  • DeShon Elliott (PIT FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Alex Highsmith (PIT LB), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Steelers 43% · Patriots 57%

Final margin
Steelers by 7
Luck in points
8.3 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Patriots by 1.3
Replay with same day's form
Steelers 62% · Patriots 38% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · Steelers · Patriots

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