luckadjusted

2025 NFL season · September 18, 2025–September 22

Week 3 2025: who deserved to win

3 of 16 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Eagles beat the Rams 33–26 in a game they win 13% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 3 2025 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 1 of 4 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Browns 13–10 vs Packers 26% 18% Lucky
Panthers 30–0 vs Falcons 34% 50% Coin flip
Lions 38–30 @ Ravens 37% 63% Deserved
Bears 31–14 vs Cowboys 46% 50% Coin flip

Week 3 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Eagles W 33–26 vs Rams 13% +87
2 Browns W 13–10 vs Packers 18% +82
3 Bears W 31–14 vs Cowboys 50% +50
4 Panthers W 30–0 vs Falcons 50% +50
5 Steelers W 21–14 @ Patriots 62% +38
6 Buccaneers W 29–27 vs Jets 63% +37
7 Lions W 38–30 @ Ravens 63% +37
8 Chiefs W 22–9 @ Giants 63% +37
9 Commanders W 41–24 vs Raiders 81% +19
10 Jaguars W 17–10 vs Texans 82% +18
11 Chargers W 23–20 vs Broncos 85% +15
12 49ers W 16–15 vs Cardinals 87% +14
13 Bills W 31–21 vs Dolphins 88% +12
14 Colts W 41–20 @ Titans 89% +11
15 Seahawks W 44–13 vs Saints 90% +10
16 Vikings W 48–10 vs Bengals 98% +2
17 Bengals L 10–48 @ Vikings 2% −2
18 Saints L 13–44 @ Seahawks 10% −10
19 Titans L 20–41 vs Colts 11% −11
20 Dolphins L 21–31 @ Bills 12% −12
21 Cardinals L 15–16 @ 49ers 14% −14
22 Broncos L 20–23 @ Chargers 15% −15
23 Texans L 10–17 @ Jaguars 18% −18
24 Raiders L 24–41 @ Commanders 19% −19
25 Giants L 9–22 vs Chiefs 37% −37
26 Ravens L 30–38 vs Lions 37% −37
27 Jets L 27–29 @ Buccaneers 37% −37
28 Patriots L 14–21 vs Steelers 38% −38
29 Falcons L 0–30 @ Panthers 50% −50
30 Cowboys L 14–31 @ Bears 50% −50
31 Packers L 10–13 @ Browns 82% −82
32 Rams L 26–33 @ Eagles 87% −87